Ohio13 Blog

Emily's Dismissed

2006-05-01T09:10:00.000-07:00

Here we go, back in the ring again. This time it is an editiorial from the Akron Beacon Journal slamming Betty in the corner for her incredibly negative campaign in the 13th district, run by the special interest group, Emily's List. See below:

From the ABJ today:

Honestly, Betty
Tom Sawyer, man of many junkets? Give us a break
John Seiberling isn't the type to thrust himself into a Democratic primary, years after leaving Congress, his exemplary legacy long ago established, from challenging the corrupt and imperial Richard Nixon to founding the Cuyahoga Valley National Park. Thus, the moment deserved attention last week, the former House member registering in a phone conversation his disappointment in the negative campaign of Betty Sutton, the distortion-filled attacks against Tom Sawyer launched on her behalf by OH Women Vote!, a project of EMILY's List.
``I'm embarrassed,'' Seiberling said. He argued that Sutton ought to reject the attacks and apologize to Sawyer. Was Seiberling merely coming to the aid of his successor in the House? He actually made a point of noting that Sutton had been running a ``good campaign'' before she and her friends turned so nasty.
Many Democrats have received the direct-mail barrage, campaign literature portraying Sawyer as a representative who ``said `hello' to over 20 fabulous destinations,'' traveling on the tab of ``special interests'' as ``thousands of Ohio workers said `adios' to their jobs.'' The charge is ludicrous. For years, Sawyer has been jabbed for aloofness, for failing to rub elbows with the powerbrokers. Now he is part of the Bob Ney crowd, galivanting around the world?
Sawyer has asserted: ``I know desperation when I see it.'' Actually, the blasts smack of a cynicism that an earlier version of Betty Sutton, the one who served in the Ohio House, would have immediately found loathsome. All of this smells of a poll, or focus group, or both, identifying ``corruption'' as the most easily exploited issue, and the consultants hatching a dark plan to do no less.
The problem? The attacks have nothing to do with reality. Sutton would be on more solid ground insisting that William Hung would have been better leading the Rolling Stones than Mick Jagger.
Who are these special interests? Foundations, largely, that bring together lawmakers, experts, business leaders and others to talk about policy matters. In one instance, Sawyer was part of a group of American and European officials looking to improve access to their markets for auto sales. This wasn't golf at St. Andrews on Jack Abramoff's dime.
Team Sutton cites a news story stating that Sawyer was ``the most frequent traveler among the Ohio delegation.'' When did the counting start and end? The Toledo Blade recently pointed to 57 trips by Sherrod Brown, who created the open seat in the 13th District when he embarked on his race for the U.S. Senate. Sutton regularly seeks the glow of the Brown presence. Does that include his wish to take a fellowship in Japan while serving as Ohio secretary of state?
As John Seiberling knows well, proper travel benefits lawmakers and their constituents, especially in this global economy. That is the Sawyer record. Anyone who suggests otherwise just isn't being honest.

This reaffirms the bad taste negative campaigns leave in people's mouths. It also reaffirms the incredibly bad taste DC establishments leave in people's mouths. There is only one thing to say: Emily, you are dismissed. Goodbye.

Putting the "Fun" in Fundraiser

2006-04-29T13:32:00.000-07:00

It was reported to us that yesterday, at a fundraiser for Dennis Will, somewhat of a semi-altercation occurred. Apparently, several candidates were there working the room as usual, passing out literature, talking the talk, and all that jazz. At one point, Betty Sutton approached a table that was described as "...a group of Senior Women activists in the Lorain Democratic Party." After a brief introduction, Ms. Sutton was then grabbed on the arm by one of these seniors and scolded for her attack ads she has been using as the centerpiece of her campaign. The women at the table apparently wanted to know who and what was behind the ads, asking for a source. The situation was noticeable from across the room as a few witnesses poked fun at the incident.

Now that would be funny. Betty and Emily taking on a group of seniors in the ring. Seniors who advocate for the Lorain Democratic Party nonetheless. Maybe it is time for Emily's Lisp to find another campaign to sabotage.

On a side note, everyone should get their recycling bins ready. If you're mail is anything like mine, then you have enough campaign literature from a ton of candidates to build a fort in your backyard.

OHIO 13 ENDORSEMENT

2006-04-28T10:08:00.000-07:00

Over the years in American politics, communications have expanded by taking on innovative roles and increasing methodological approaches. We go back as far to the days of FDR when newspapers and previews in movie theaters began to showcase the developments of this American leader while spinning a message to the public. Even back then, it was evident of the sources this communication encompassed: certain entities in society with vested interest in an American Presidency funneling out his message to voters.Onward we go to the days when television ads crossed over to the experimental phase and politicans that could afford to, took a stab at a small screen debut. Each President (and those elected officials within their era) can be given a label of "the first newspaper president," "the first radio president," and "the first television President." In each of these entities respectively, individuals accountable for each candidacy provided a viable source in which developments could be traced back to discover the trend-setting strategies to influence society.

Now here we are, in 2006, when the youngest form of these communication tools has reached an ultimate peak: The Internet. Whether or not Gore created it, the use of websites in public office and campaigns, and the giant push of Dean in 2004 to revolutionize fundraising over the web, has been a landmark in American politics in the start of this decade.

More recently, readers have been introduced to a new galaxy: The Blogosphere. This creation, featured in everything to online photo albums, sports pages, to personal pages, and now political races, is a risky invention. The ability to provide a viable source at times is near impossible. No one can filter through and find a definite identity of authors on the web, a true reason behind the content, or the goal of which a message is seeking. We at Ohio 13, like many, feel we maintain a particular viability in what we post. However, we are mindful of the consequences of influence. In regards for the full respect of each voter in the 13th district, those that will ultimately have the say in this primary race, we release the endorsement from Ohio 13:

Nobody.

Ohio 13 is not going to pretend to trick you one way or the other. We do not hate on the candidates. We try to be fair. We have written about many things, and have considered many of yours. We are tickled by the quelms of each candidate, and the responses rendered by many of you. We are not the Cleveland Plain Dealer, we are not a radio station, we are not a labor organization, nor a public official. We encourage each of you to make your own endorsement by voting next Tuesday to get your voice heard. On the other hand...in our next post, we will provide a synopsis of our prior posts and the qualities we feel have been exemplary of each candidate. Until then, keep up the fight!

Emily's Pissed

2006-04-28T08:35:00.000-07:00

Here we go again. In light of Pho's post the other day, I too went outside to retrieve my mail only to find another piece of literature from Emily for Congress, or, Betty Sutton to some. This time, Emily takes a break from attacking Tom Sawyer and takes a stab at Capri Cafaro. We have some tid bits on here like "Capri testified to get immunity..." and "We can't trust her."These items, already in speculation, come as no surprise from Emily.

Once again, after failing to establish a complaint with any merit whatsoever against Sawyer (since Sutton herself benefitted from the same trips when she was in the state house from special interest groups) money has been spent in a way that does not focus on Sutton's strengths. We could have seen a literature piece focusing on a plan of action, not a plan of protest.

This situation reminds me of an episode from Seinfeld that guest starred Raquel Welch. Elaine got caught up on the street in Ms. Welch's path and ended up with some heavy scratches. Emily, Betty, Capri... all in one ring. To quote the great J. Peterman on the show, "I smell the makings of a good 'ol fashioned cat fight....woof!"

A Not-So Exciting Debate Starring Big Baby Betty

2006-04-27T10:52:00.000-07:00

From what we have heard, the Cleveland City Club debate for the 13th congressional district candidates was nothing out of the ordinary, except once again, Bill Grace was a no show. It has been reported that a family emergency came up unexpectedly. If this is the case, we wish him well and hope that all is fine.

On the other hand, the debate included the standard opening remarks, a few questions asked, and so on and yadda yadda yadda. One of the questions was aimed at Capri Cafaro to once again ask the same question about her immunity. What I don't understand, is why people would waste their time on any candidate by asking them the same question when they already know what the answer was going to be. I would have asked instead Gary Kucinich about what his plan would be to get out of Iraq, Cafaro about how she would implement her SAW plan into policy action after all of its criticsm, Tom Sawyer what he would do differently in this Congress vs. the old Congress, Betty Sutton what she stands for on, well, anything... and so on down the line.

Another highlight discussed in the news was the mildly heated exchange between Tom Sawyer and Betty Sutton. Betty Sutton refused to apologize for being the only top tier candidate playing dirty on the air in this race. We are hearing more and more of the same from Betty, and we aren't sure if this negative approach is the best way to spend her money on television. Surely, it is not selling Betty Sutton in her finest form, particularly when Mr. Sawyer can rebut her claim of his scandolous lobbying trips with similar trips she took while in the state house. Maybe this is the result of having your race run by a group in Washington, rather than fueled by the people in the 13th district as all the other candidates have done. It would be in her best interest to dry the tears now before the final weekend arrives before the primary. On that note, I am off to take my medicine and head back to bed.

Hospital Memoirs, TV Land, and an Elephant Stampede

2006-04-21T16:30:00.001-07:00

Well, I must say we at Ohio 13 were hoping that all of the excitement would hold off for a week while I made somewhat of a speedy recovery from a minor operation. To our faithful readers: Thank you for your kind support as this has been a stressful time...and what a time to have to endure it.

As the final week of campaigning approaches for all candidates throughout the state, our television sets will be flooded with messages like, "If Ken Blackwell gets elected, some mean person will run up and steal your child's blanket..." and "Capri Cafaro cannot be bought now or never!" and most recently, "If you and your colleagues are ever hijacked, don't worry, Betty Sutton will run like the wind." Speaking of Betty, during my lovely hospital visit, an Ohio13 teammember brought my mail during visiting hours, which included a few pieces of literature on behalf of her candidacy. As expected, the literature was brought to my doorstep courtesy of Emily's List. I know I have touched upon the issue before, but for someone with a supposed history of standing up to lobbyists and interest groups that now embraces a special interest group, this has some irony to it. It basically reaffirms her alliance with Washington and a pre-mature beltway mentality, introducing herself early on as someone that can be controlled by groups outside of her constituency. 2006 is supposed to be the year the Democrats don't run their races from DC, but Betty's campaign seems to be the black sheep in that flock.

As far as the other side of the aisle is concerned, we wonder what the GOP primary numbers will end up being. The democrats have been taking their own polls, and for good reason. But will Foltin remain the golden boy for the remaining 8 days? It seems that McGrew and Burtlaff have been making a final push, especially with visibility. Foltin has the cash, but obviously is not spending much. It looks like he is utilizing the Tom Sawyer method of assuming he will walk into the nomination.

Finally, the Cafaro factor. We know her ads will continue through election day, but will they be countered with attack ads? Whatever the case, the City Club debate on Wednesday promises to be the culminating event at which each candidate will have the opportunity to start making their final pitch. Ohio 13 would like to know what questions you think she be asked aside from what is already known. What issues (aside from Sawyer's back taxes and congressional trips, Cafaro's immunity, or Sutton's special interests) should be brought before the candidates that deserve more light? We want to know what you would do if you were the moderator...our eyes and ears are waiting.

Wow... well, this definitely ain't boring

2006-04-11T07:07:00.000-07:00

It's definitely exciting when the lawyers get involved... yep, Cafaro will sue anyone who misstates her immunity deal thingy. It's certainly an aggressive move, although I can't say that it's what I'd have done if I had the power and authority to make those choices. Sounds a bit harsh... but almost understandable at this point. I imagine if I were in the center of a tornado, I'd do anything I could to fight back. Of course, it also gives Gary Kucinich something that he hasn't had in quite a while... attention, which is the biggest issue I would take strategically with the move.

Yep, Brother of Dennis gets his share of coverage, since it was apparently he who got this brouhaha started. He sounds the appropriate martyr tone...

From the Morning Journal:

Kucinich is not concerned with the threat of a lawsuit from his opponent.''I will not be intimidated by someone who is a billionaire,'' he said. ''She can never cover up the truth. The question remains: Why did she ask for immunity if she didn't do anything wrong?''

Well Gary, since you keep bringing it up, let's look at it. According to her letter,she did not insist on immunity. But considering the source, we'll look deeper.

The Elyria Chronicle Reporter Steven Szucs had a similar question, it appears, and talked to a local attorney

From the ECT:

Lorain attorney Jack Bradley, who is not affiliated with Cafaro, agreed that offers of immunity are common and accepting any such offer would be a smart move. “You should still get immunity even if you didn’t do anything wrong,” he said.

But even after that... I still don't know what the hell to make of all this. It is bizarre on a whole number of angles. Maybe Tom Sawyer is taking the best political strategy, in speaking to the Morning Journal:

Former Congressman Tom Sawyer, also a Democratic candidate for the 13th District seat, said yesterday he had not yet read the letter. The former Akron mayor said he has paid little attention to the issue and his campaign has no intention of pursuing it.''I have no intention of undertaking that issue,'' Sawyer said. ''That's in the past.''

In other notes on this issue... I actually have a copy of the "newspaper" in question being distributed by Gary K. It's quite a funny read. It appears to be an ad hoc publication dedicated entirely to pimping Kucinich. Where there aren't articles praising Gary, there are Gary ads... The odd thing, is that it claims an actual masthead and a history of printing since 1967... A vanity newspaper with that long a history might be a sign of some severe narcissism.

The persons listed on the Masthead themselves are also quite interesting... it appears dominated by a Huffman family, including a Gina Huffman. This comes as really odd, as a Gina Huffman is also the Treasurer of the Northeast Ohio Voter Education Fund, which sent out a fundraising letter earlier this campaign to a number of "Democrat and Republican" voters dedicated to "keeping Capri Cafaro out of Congress." So wheels within wheels are working here.

So as usual, "everything seems to be up in the air at this time. One day soon, it will all settle down," as the boys of Camper Van Beethoven once said... It's a shame, there just so much to cover, and my personal issues keep me from it... Cafaro ads are on the air, Sutton and EMILY's List direct mail pieces are in the mailboxes, so much to discuss... What's next, Mike Lyons engaging in self-immolation to protest his lack of coverage? Tom Sawyer whitewashing a fence? Anything else we haven't seen yet?

John
OH 13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Sorry, an observation, and who knows what else WITH UPDATE

2006-04-06T13:49:00.000-07:00

First, my apologies for the absence. I had some news of a medical nature that has kind of taken the wind out of my sails. It's been a rough week, and I apologize to you all.

An observation... I love and hate the blogging process. I enjoy hearing and arguing with the readers, the ability to shape discourse, and even the writing and researching process... brngs back grad school memories... But it's rouch blogging, never knowing if the message you intended gets through, and in general, the sense of convincing or not convincing the same X people over and over again... it gets frustrating. But thems the breaks... maybe it's just the detritus of an entirely shitty week being washed up...

As for today... Openers notes that Sutton is on the offensive again against Sawyer, this time on the issue of Congressional Junkets... While it is my feeling that strategically, attacking, and attacking on such perks of incumbency is a good idea for Sutton, I am concerned about junkets not taking off as an issue. They really should, as they are in many ways a visible sign of the arrogance of too many elected officials... Notice that they are rarely if ever to Des Moines or Wichita or other less than touristy locales, these trips... It's one thing to take an argicultural junket to Dubuque, Iowa, but when politicians get free trips to Vegas and overseas to discuss things that certainly can be more reasonably and economically discussed in less exotic places.

Yet it's never taken off. Lot's of campaigns tried nationwide to make it work in 2004, and few if any got real traction on the issue. I'm hoping that what has happened with Ney is a sign it may work elsewhere, but Ney also has other significant ethical issues.

What is funny though, is that Sutton also got some attention for a trip she took in the State House... nothing quite so untoward as a "junket" apparently, but in 1997, the Plain Dealer noted that she missed the swearing in ceremony for that House session when she took an overseas trip to Singapore. The House Dem spokesman called it a planned trip, and it is not apparent from the article whether or not it was paid for by her, or an organization, but it seems noteworthy. UPDATE: The Sutton Campaign informs me this was a planned family vacation.

I bring this up not to bash Sutton, because, although I dislike the way in which certain DC entities have attempted to involve themselves in the race on her behalf, I kind of like her. It's just really indicative of the problem with negative attacks... everyone has negatives, and as campaigns devolve into who's less bad than whom, we get politicians and interest groups more adept at throwing mud than actually making or shaping policy. We have a class of people whose role in life is to tell people how to get elected, and how to destroy those who oppose them.

Also, in the ironic department, EMILY's List sent out a letter accusing the NRA of meddling in the 13th district by endorsing Capri Cafaro. While the NRA may not reflect the values of the 13th perfectly, I am damn sure that EM's list doesn't either. So, essentially, they are making an issue about the NRA meddling where they are already meddling... because they were first... Oh, in a perfect world, who knows, the people of the 13th could make up their own damned minds, and not have either group meddle?

But that won't happen, and at the end, it is kinda funny... I love this game!

John
OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Bloggers Bracket, MTBs, and other stuff

2006-04-03T06:54:00.000-07:00

First off, we have a winner. Scott of Word of Mouth clinched the Ohio Bloggers Bracket Championship with UCLA's victory over LSU. He's the proud winner of a front page post here on Ohio13... and maybe a beer or something next time I visit Lorain...

There were a couple of MTB's this weekend, both of which I missed. My schedule for work is quite insane most of the time, and as form holds out, I was travelling from Thursday thru Sunday (hence the lack of posts). It is probably for the best... meeting candidates forces one to treat them (most of the time) as human beings, and when treating the race like a serial drama, that can be a bad thing. If the things that happen in a political race happen to real human beings, we might have a tinge of guilt, so better to have them happen to a cast of characters.

Bill Grace got relatively high marks on his performance at MTB. Although, it seems that everyone realized that he no concrete legislative proposals... his policy chops apparently range from suspect to non-existent. Which brings me to Cafaro appearance the next day, where she gets roundly attacked (in other news, the sky is blue, dogs dislike cats, and the sun rises each day in the east). The complaints that people seem to have are essentially that she has a policy proposal that they think is a joke. Fair point, and since I find policy somewhat less exciting than memorizing the phone book, I have to take their word on it. It just seems strange in contrast that Grace is OK despite having no policy positions whatsoever, while Cafaro is bad because she has policy positions which may be lacking in the details.

There are reasons aplenty why this blog stays clear of Cafaro in most cases. The first and most pressing is that other blogs handle parsing and analysis of Cafaro better than I do. Hell, there's a site that appears to be dedicated just to beating on her, and everyone else takes their shots on issues from the substantive (policy, youth) to the marginal (Shopping Mall Heiress) to the utterly Absurd (statements she made as an 8 year old). While they can be fun, at the same time, there's a sense that people are out to get her... and I guess I just don't hate her that much.

Second, we don't find her as objectionable as it seems the rest of the blogosphere does. Not that I intend to vote for her, because I am leaning heavily towards another candidate (feel free to take guesses), but at least one of my associates on this blog does intend to vote for her, and frankly, there are so many things about the campaign as a whole which get ENTIRELY overshadowed because people would rather discuss what's wrong with Cafaro.

Third, if every candidate in the Dem field were held to the standard that everyone insists on holding Cafaro, Craig Foltin would win in a landslide. Every candidate has strange and somewhat absurd negatives... if you Lexis-Nexis most of them and take the time to read what comes up, you wouldn't vote for any of them. When I do, on occasion, hold a candidate to that kind of standard, I catch hell from people. If Tom Sawyer were treated like Cafaro has been (and particularly since he is the candidate that people have a real reason to oppose, IMHO), would he seem nearly as plausible a candidate?

Yeah, I am well aware that Cafaro has been tainted by the Traficant thing... and the carpetbagger thing... but other candidates have been given a free pass on their malfeasance, extremism, or other negatives. So, yeah, as Cafaro becomes newsworthy, should it be revealed that as a three year old she beat her preschool teacher to death with a lead pipe, yeah, I'll bite. At this point, it just seems like the same old attacks. And after a while, online, and in the electorate, they get old.

So if it seems like, as Pho put it, "Ohio 13 is the only blog that has been anything like supportive," it's not that... it's more a fatigue thing. We don't love Cafaro... we just don't hate her either.

So, this week, the campaign begins to heat up... less than 1 month from E-Day. Please send in your reports of field activity, events, etc. so we can let everyone know what's going on. This week, we have the following posts planned:

1. Geographic analysis of the race.
2. Breakdown of who wins if who attacks whom (which may be one of the more complex posts we've attempted here)
3. Anything else that pops up
4. Hopefully, Scott's piece, should he have one ready.

That's all for now... have fun, and get ready for a month of insanity... bring galoshes.

John
OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

The campaign begins to emerge from the boredom, and other stuff

2006-03-30T09:09:00.000-08:00

Well, we have some action, and it's interesting. The Sutton Camp released a statement regarding Tom Sawyer's NAFTA vote, and it was hard-hitting. This is the first attack by any campaign that has made political sense. Grace and Kucinich have attacked wildly, and focused on Cafaro. Cafaro and Sawyer haven't really attacked anyone, which is not an unwise strategy for either of them, having the lead in money and Name ID, respectively. Sutton's team is smart to attck Sawyer, as he is polling the best, but his support is somewhat weak.

From Sutton's Statement:

"Tom Sawyer's dismissal of the importance of workers and labor once again demonstrates why Ohio's workers don't trust him to protect their interests and represent them in Congress.

"His attempts to explain away his votes against workers as a simple mistake do not solve the problem and don't even begin to address the impact it had on Ohio's workers. NAFTA decimated Ohio's economy and dismantled people's lives -- thousands of workers lost their jobs, their healthcare, and other benefits. Families' dreams of sending children to college or enjoying the fruits of long years of hard work evaporated."

"Workers in Ohio don't deserve Tom Sawyer's disrespect and insulting rationalizations. The labor organizations in Ohio have fought valiantly to protect workers from discrimination and dangerous work places. They have fought for fair wages and family sustaining benefits for Ohio's working men and women. Workers are bright and capable and understand our economy is changing - they should be embraced as a partner in moving our communities forward."

"Tom Sawyer turned his back on Ohio's workers. I am the only candidate in this race who has consistently demonstrated the integrity and backbone to stand up for workers and fight for the issues that average people worry about every day. Together we can develop trade policies that will work for average people and not against them."

Smart move for Sutton, and beneficial to the field, in that once Sawyer's weak support is in play, it becomes a multi-way horse race. If Sawyer remains strong, Sutton cannot compete... by being proactive, Betty is definitely working to put herself in play again. Now, for her it's a matter of how much she has raised , and how much EMILY's list is going to throw into the race.

Judging by her list of "endorsements and support," she'll have something, although the question is, will it be enough? Everyone knows (or at least assumes) Cafaro will be up big on TV. Will Betty have enough time and money to get her name and message out, particularly through the soup of the late April political landscape? A ground campaign will be needed to take messages to voters, (UPDATE: Sutton's ground campaign has begun, sorry if this was unclear) but again, Cafaro is out with her ground campaign already... And frankly, Sawyer poses a strange, unusual problem for everyone, even if he continues to run a stealth campaign. He will have his base level support, particularly in Summit County... as will Grace in Elyria... wow, this race continues to confuse and amuse me... anything could happen. Even our less publicized candidates could play a role, depending on from where and whom they draw their votes. You know, watching this unfold, you start to get an idea why the Party Apparatus likes managed, bossed primaries.

I did notice that Sutton for Congress appeared to lose (or is that misplace?) an endorsement. Recently, an endorsement from the SEIU disappeared from the website. As well, the criteria for what constitutes "endorsement and support" seems really unclear in general. A few items have endorsement letters linked, a few have descriptions of the group, and a few have nothing... The Sutton campaign has had issues with endorsements previously (Steelworkers non-endorsement endorsement, the Brown fiasco), so I am curious as to how they determine what qualifies as "endorsement and support."

The reason I bring this up is that the concept of exclusivity in support is important. An endorsement implies exclusive support for the one candidate only. Support is more nebulous; in big-league politics, groups will often hedge their bets by writing checks to multiple campaigns competing against each other, just to make sure they're taken care of after the election is over.
The way that Sutton describes her support on the website is confusing and vague... hopefully the campaign will clear that up. UPDATE: The Sutton campaign uses receipt of a check, or written or verbal endorsement.

I know that it seems minor, but misclaiming endorsements are a classic PR nightmare. The make a campaign look very bad. I'm certainly not claiming that the support is being claimed in error... I just want to know what qualifies as support or endorsement when it's not clear, and what happened to our brothers and sisters at SEIU. Maybe splitting up endorsements and supports would be a little more clear.

Otherwise, not much else new. Thanks team Sutton for giving us some political meat to sink our teeth into... and remember campaigns, there's a race on! Grace, Sawyer, Kucinich... start acting like it! Or at least act like you know what you're doing guys.

John
Ohio 13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Does anyone know how to run a campaign?

2006-03-29T06:57:00.000-08:00

Sometimes, you gotta wonder... for an election that is just over a month hence, the general lack of buzz and "visible" work by most campaigns is kind of frightening. And I don't mean showing up at a few events... I mean field efforts, obvious press-relations efforts, and if nothing else, generating buzz. It almost has the feel of a race where everyone thinks they're the favorite, so they behave accordingly.

One of our heroes got in the paper today, and he certainly wasn't sounding like a favorite. Yep, Bill Grace got a piece in the Elyria Chronicle today. You know it will be an interesting piece when the title is "Grace slams rivals in congressional race."

So, what does Willie have to say about his opponents? Well, Foltin is bad because Lorain hasn't made the progress Elyria has... and he is right... particularly since "progress of Elyria" isn't exactly a high bar to get over. We'll give him a point there.

Betty Sutton? She doesn't have "the fire in the belly" to serve in Congress. Whether or not that's true... someone with Bill Grace's record of "I'm out... no, I guess I'm in" decisionmaking in regards to entering the race should think twice about questioning the motives and desires of a candidate. At least he was able to say he respects Tom Sawyer, before stating the obvious (Labor isn't Sawyer's biggest fan).

Cafaro is accused of being shallow, with only money to bring into the campaign. Again, regardless of the truth or untruth of the accusation, Bill Grace, he of the non-existent campaign, he of the campaign website that spent a week being a yard-sign, he of a vague three-issue platform without a single specific policy proposal, should not be attacking anyone as shallow. And even Gary Kucinich gets hit, as Grace states the obvious, that his last name is is campaign.

I've rarely seen what could have been a promising campaign degenerate as ineptly and as quickly as Bill Grace's has. At this point, he might win a plurality in Elyria... otheriwse, he's on his way to having a loss embarrasing enough to end his political career. Plus, by going negative against everyone, he's certainly not in a good position to play nice... I could see a winning Sutton not having the "fire in her belly" to grab those federal grants for Elyria, or a winning Cafaro being too "shallow" to think about getting grace's city government any federal money.

It's hard to understand what his campaign is thinking. It's getting very little press, and when it finally gets an article, there's hardly a positive in there... this kind of scatter-shot attack against the field is normally the product of a desperate campaign; at least the Grace people know enough to be desperate.

OH13

The beauty of the underdog, the blogger's bracket, and other minutiae

2006-03-27T06:55:00.000-08:00

Congrats to the final four, LSU, UCLA, Florida, and GEORGE F'ING MASON!!!! My god, I love the NCAA tournament. Perhaps no event shows the beauty of sport, or human competition better. A team from a unheralded conference, who many pundits believed didn't warrant inclusion in the tournament, win four games against favored opposition, three of whose basketball budgets, facilities and traditions put theirs to shame. It really is a life-affirming thing, for those of us who love sport and not just "their team(s)." The eyes of a nation of hoops fans are squarely on the young men from Fairfax, Virginia, and, at the risk of being biased, go Patriots!

As for the blogger's bracket, it appears to be a two way race. LorainAtLarge leads right now, but has no teams left. Scott at Word of Mouth is 5 points behind, and has UCLA in the championship game. Should UCLA win, Scott wins, with Campaign Addict vaulting to second.
Best of luck to everyone in contention... which doesn't include me... gosh, my bracket got wrecked.

Otherwise, check out Walk Back, another new voice in these parts... welcome to the party. And psychobilly has a great post on a poll floating around... My money would be on Sawyer putting the poll out... just a hunch, but we'll be able to find out more (hopefully) come the filing deadline.

More soon...

OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Lyons is online, Sawyer has a new buddy, and the weekend

2006-03-24T09:12:00.000-08:00

From Ohio 2006, who I have to say must be the hardest-working blogger around these parts, we find that Mike Lyons is online. He has an intorductory video, in which he looks only somewhat similar to the photo at the top of the page... hair consistency is important, candidates!

I'll leave the commentary sparse, and let the readers discuss the relative merits of the site.

In other news, the Sawyer train keeps chugging... Don Plusquellic, Mayor-for-life of Akron (I kid because I love) has joined the Sawyer campaign as a co-chair. Not too surprising, they're old buds, and as the article says, Don P. is returning a favor from long ago. Still, frankly among officeholders, Plusquellic is among the biggest names to get, so it's a good get for Sawyer. Still waiting to see signs of life from his campaign... will he repeat the 2002 strategy, or does he plan on a more aggressive campaign?

Otherwise, the weekend is upon us... unless something huge breaks, we'll see ya'll monday. Consider this your open thread.

Ohio 13 blog editors
we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Rep. Brown says something on the race...

2006-03-23T12:14:00.000-08:00

We're just not quite sure what it means. Or actually, according to Sherrod Brown, "it means what anyone wants it to mean."

From Openers: (Sorry for just copying most of it, but there's no good way to edit it down to keep the meaning).

Brown, a Democrat, isn't seeking reelection as the representative of the
13th congressional district because he is running for the U.S. Senate. Eight
Democrats seek to replace him, and one of them - Betty Sutton - says Brown
encouraged her to run.

But when The Plain Dealer asked Brown spokesman Ben Wikler about that
claim, Wikler would neither confirm or deny it. His only comment:"Sherrod is
excited by the breadth and depth of Democratic talent from across northeast Ohio
that's come out for the race."

Hmmm.

When Sutton was told that the Brown campaign refused to confirm her
oft-made claim, she was nonplussed. Minutes later, Wikler called The Plain
Dealer back and said Brown had indeed encouraged Sutton to run.

But Wikler was once again stuck for an answer when asked whether Brown
supports Sutton''s campaign, and whether he knew that two other Democratic
candidates - Tom Sawyer and Elyria Mayor Bill Grace - both say Brown told them
he would be neutral in the race.
***
A short time later Brown himself called and said, "I encouraged Betty
Sutton to run but I'm not making an endorsement in this
race."

Does that mean you support Sutton or not?

"It means what anyone wants it to mean," Brown said. "I've said what I'm
going to say."

Alrighty then... so, predictions of a Brown endorsement seen elsewhere appear to be greatly exaggerated... or maybe not, who knows? Sounds like everyone is singing from different hymnals here. If Brown is not endorsing, it's the right decision, IMHO... Little tangible beneft to being right in his pick, plenty of downside if he's wrong. I know there's an ego boost to being able to handpick your successor, but when it comes down to it, getting involved does no good for Brown.

To answer a pertinent question in the comments

2006-03-23T09:43:00.000-08:00

Yep, it's not all plaudits and laurels here at OH13... nope, we get our critics here too... apparently, we've run afoul of a Sawyer supporter, Ohi3, who writes the following:

You guys write some real crap on this website. What do you have against Tom Sawyer, anyway? He's the only candidate you viciously attack and give no benefit of the doubt. He's explained and apologized for his NAFTA vote over and over again, but all the anti-NAFTA demogogues out there that want to demonize Sawyer also supported both Gore and Kerry when they ran for President, and, you and they forget that both Gore and Kerry also both supported NAFTA, and their President [Clinton} at the time. Get a clue.

Well, since you asked... lessee...
1. We do not attack just Sawyer... look through the archives, we've criticized every major candidate at one time or another. While we are concerned that our pro-Dennerll bias may be showing, we try to hide it.

2. As for why Sawyer gets hit a bit here... you see, the NAFTA vote, and what it represented and represents is not some nebulous policy dispute to me. It's personal, damn personal. I grew up in a family where my dad worked in manufacturing. I say worked, because his lost his job when his company moved operations to Mexico. We very quickly went from being comfortable, if by no means wealthy, to having to scratch and claw to survive. Have you ever had to worry, Ohi3, about whether you were going to have a roof over your head? I have, and my folks have.

If a real case could be made that it was ignorance that led to the vote, I might be able to more readily forgive. But people knew. Remember the "giant sucking sound?" The people who supported this knew full well that NAFTA would cost Americans jobs... particularly jobs in the Northeast and the Industrial Midwest. While the South might gain, this part of the country would most certainly not.

Sherrod Brown released these stats this week, with almost 50k jobs lost in Ohio because of NAFTA.

So yeah, he made a mistake... he wants us to forgive. Well, my parents wanted things too. NAFTA made sure they couldn't get what they wanted out of life... remind me why I should give Sawyer what he wants?

Now, to be fair, I will try not to be the lone voice against Sawyer, although, go to any union event where Sawyer attends, you will hear similar invective and arguments. The fact that other voices in the blogosphere may not find it as important of an issue is fine; that's why we all have our own blogs. But remember, each of us have had our own experiences which taint our view. And frankly, the suffering NAFTA caused me and my family leaves me ill-equipped to put it aside as a "single vote."

But hey, that's up to the voters... they'll decide what's up May 2.

John
OH-13

Did Tom Sawyer write the script?

2006-03-22T11:35:00.000-08:00

We're starting to wonder if Tom Sawyer can be so devious and so cunning as to have found a way to hide his way to victory. Yep, we hear nothing from the venerable free-trader, save the occassional encomium-cum-fellatio from Steve Hoffman (we swear, if he's not on Sawyer's payroll, he's got the biggest man-crush this side of Jack and Ennis)... yet, thanks to way things are shaking out, he may be able to skulk his way back to Congress. And we choose the world skulk intentionally; even if you can get elected it this manner, it seems highly dubious to do so.

Tom Sawyer has had to love the fact that he has been ignored. He is the only member of the field with anything resembling a giant policy misstep on his resume. He's the only candidate that you can draw a flow chart from him to lost jobs with any sort of credibility. In a normal race, the field would be ganging up on him, weakening him in regards to NAFTA, Free Trade with China... essentially, what happened when he ran in 2002.

Of course, this race has seen somebody else wear the black hat (albeit a stylish one, to be sure). It seems that the field has decided that Cafaro is the biggest threat, and has decided to attack her. Whatever negative impact on Cafaro it's really having with the electorate is tough to see... but the biggest impact it's having is that it is putting Tom Sawyer in better and better position to win. He's no shoo-in to win quite yet, but so far, every single thing is breaking his way...

Everyone's campaigns have had their polls, and all of them show Tom Sawyer in front. At some point, somebody has to realize that if they don't hit Tom, he's going to be too far ahead to catch.

So, is Tom Sawyer enough of an evil genius to devise this cunning plan, or are the opposing campaigns just so stupid as to not recognize the person who most needs to be checked? Grace, Kucinich, Wolfe and the gang beat up Cafaro, and yeah, she may not win, but neither will they... beat up Sawyer, get his percentage of the vote down, and they may well have a chance, if they can then get his voters to go their way....

OH 13
ohio13@gmail.com

Dennerll, Grace with websites

2006-03-20T12:29:00.000-08:00

Yep, Norbert Dennerll has his website up at www.dennerllforcongress.com. The photo of ND with JFK is a personal fave. Otherwise, nothing groundbreaking... but he deserves some pub, and we're giving it to him.

Bill Grace also remedied the not-so-interactive yardsign that was his website... www.graceforcongress.com . And it's the coolest looking graphically in the field thus far... maybe his web designer should be running for congress. Endorsements are coming soon, according to the website (he hopes).

They will both be added to the list, leaving only Sawyer and Kucinich siteless... if you have a URL that they've been hiding, let us know.

OH13

WeekendRoundup, or why does Mike Krzyzewski hate America?

2006-03-20T06:04:00.000-08:00

Before we get into the beaucoup political news swirling about, there's the matter of basketball. What the hell happened to my brackets!??! In all seriousness, this is one of the best first weekends in recent memory, with upsets, cinderalla runs, last second shots... if only Duke had lost, it would have been perfect. In the spirit of full disclosure, I despise Duke basketball. Anyone who claims moral superiority while bending the rules the way Duke does gains my wrath in the sporting world. I'd elaborate further, but I'm afraid I could write all week on the topic. Let's just say that by beating a team named after our first President, Duke showed that they hate America.

As for the Ohio Bloggers Bracket... "Lorain At Large" is leading the field by 4 points, but frequent commenter "campaign addict" is in the best position, with by far the most possible points yet to get. Big ups to me for picking Wichita State to beat Tennessee.

As for politics, we have a bunch to cover, and as usual, the political world of Ohio 13 revolves around Capri Cafaro. First, she's opened the spending floodgates by breaching the millionaire's amendment. Essentially, this means that her opponents can get donations of up to triple the individual limit... While for most of the field, this will have negligible impact (Over Under for combined $6,300 donations for Grace, Kucinich, Sawyer, Wolfe, Dennerll, and Lyons is at 10- for entertainment purposes only), this can help Betty Sutton. Thanks to the support of EMILY's List and lawyers, she's the one candidate with a reasonable shot of getting some of these mega-donations. This development is interesting, as it may give her the momentum to become a player again... although, judging by the polling, Betty's got a lot of work to do.

As well, Cafaro received the NRA endorsement, which sent off a tizzy of responses from the assembled field. My favorite is from Gary Kucinich (last item), who in his usual sober and measured language, said:

"Apparently, Cafaro doesn't want to represent people, she wants to shoot them.''

Oh, Gary... always good to add some perspective as to why us D's aren't always the most popular in rural districts. I wonder if other Dems who've earned the NRA endorsement just want to shoot their constituents? Waiting for word on a Rep. John Murtha shooting spree.

Apparently, Cafaro was also doing door to door in Lorain County this weekend, as she happened upon Scott's door at Word of Mouth. Go to Scott for his take, but needless to say, she made an impression.

Otherwise, there was an interesting piece in the Lorain Morning Journal about Grace and Foltin's respective runs. They prove to be a study in contrasts, as it becomes apparent that one mayor knows what he's doing, and the other is kind of hoping for a miracle to get out of the primary. Yep, even the LMJ notes that critics are wondering if Grace's heart is really in the race. He certainly is not running like someone looking to win, and I do not see how a loss helps his long-term prospects.

Well, I'm sure there's more out there, but that's enough for one sitting. Catch ya'll soon.

John
OH-13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Day 1 of the Tourney and some other stuff

2006-03-17T07:58:00.000-08:00

With all due respect to the people who are putting their reputations, futures, money and time at stake for this race, can't y'all take a couple days off? It's March Madness....

So far, so good. I'm tied for first in the Ohio Bloggers Bracket... although I swear I must have been drunk picking Nevada to make a run to the Elite eight... oh well, live and learn... some really fun games yesterday, with Tennessee-Winthrop being the really memorable one... you could tell that both teams had a sense of desperation to them... Winthrop, who'd come close to the upset so many time, wanted to break through, and UT wanted to avoid the ugly bit of history a loss would have brought on them... I think Wichita State takes out U of T next round.

In campaign news... Openers mentions that Cafaro got the NRA endorsement... and that she may be packing heat... Considering the Congress we have, maybe a few more armed representatives may not be a bad idea. In all seriousness, this is a double-edged sword endorsement, although the good edge outweighs the bad. NRA will get people to vote for her who would not have otherwise, and probably will only cost her a few votes, as other candidates are more specifically targeting that sector of voters anyways... This also strengthens her significantly in the general, should she be the candidate... and allows her to make an argument that he is the most electable Dem... isn't that ironic?

Well, slow day, slow weekend... must... watch.... basketball.

OH 13

Like a Child, Like a Baby, Like a Phenom, Like a Meteorite

2006-03-15T10:38:00.000-08:00

(Big up to anyone who knows the song and artist this post's title is cribbed from... the artist is an underappreciated American treasure.)

Well, my play-in game pick was wrong... Darn Hampton let me down. And frankly, the relative inaction of the campaigns is letting me down too... heck, I've been imagining what would happen if this primary was being decided by a basketball tournament (which, judging by the lack of competency, energy, or presence shown by his campaign thus far, appears to be the only way Bill Grace could win... ).

This is another of those deadly lull periods in the race. The serious air campaign won't start for a while, the first round of attacks have come and gone, and we now have a better read of who's serious, who's not, and who's praying the voters confuse him with his brother.

I'd say that now, Bill Grace has essentially decided he'd rather not win. For him to have a realistic chance, he needed to make a splash, blow some people away at the various cattle calls, and maybe release an unexpected endorsement or two. Or at least have a website that doesn't consist entirely of a lawnsign. Looking back, it's tough to believe that less than a month ago, at the filing deadline, he looked to have a feasible, if unlikely, scenario for victory. Grade: "Much Poorer than Expected"

Likewise, Sawyer's prospects look somewhat brighter than they had a month ago. Sawyer, while facing resistance from unions and the like, and not actually running too terribly effective a campaign thus far, is the beneficiary of a strategic decision being made by a number of campaigns. It seems that with Cafaro being the figure to rail against, Sawyer is the candidate who benefits... no one has the energy to bring up the fact that Sawyer voted for NAFTA. He may not need to run a solid campaign, if Sutton, Kucinich, et al. continue to focus their campaigns against Cafaro, rather than Sawyer, Tom Sawyer could well win on Name ID. "Better than Expected"

Cafaro gets an "as expected plus". She's certainly running an aggressive media campaign, and she has institutional support from a number of corners. She does well at multi-candidate events. She's avoided the kind of mistakes that doomed her race in 14 last time... still, she's had her detractors, and she's by no means wrapped the race up. I'd now call her the early line favorite, but with Sawyer on her heels. I'm wondering if the Anti-Cafaro tactics displayed so far, from the shopping mall to the attacks on her statements as an 8year old, help her or hurt her. It should be fun to see what the next salvo will be against her.

Betty Sutton gets a "just slightly less than expected," although I'd bet there's a method to their decisions so far. They've gathered some endorsements and almostendorsements, and Betty has been fair to good on the stump, according to most accounts. Her profile has been somewhat lower in the media than I think it should be; I wonder if her campaign underestimates just how unknown she really is, and how difficult it will be to cut through the clutter in April. And the fundraising letter from Emily's List (hi staffers!) could have sounded maybe a teensy bit less desperate. She's made no big missteps, and they've probably decided on a April-centric strategy to account for the slow rollout, but if the race continues as it is, she'll be hard-pressed to compete at the top level. She probably needs to make a move soon, to avoid the narrative becoming Sawyer v. Cafaro.

As for Gary Kucinich, well, "as expected," with the caveat that my expectations were very low for him. His campaign appears to be based on the premise that he shares chromosomes and a last name with a sitting Congressman, and that he's not Capri Cafaro, who's icky. Otherwise, there ain't much "there" there. If he wanted to see his name on lawnsigns, he didn't have to go through all this trouble, he could have taken a drive to big bro's district. Speaking of which, if and when he has lawnsigns, will they include his first name, or just have "Kucinich for Congress?"

And a brief note on the rest of the field. I like what little I've seen and heard from them, and I do hope they get a fair hearing. Mike Lyons has actually received some positive feedback for his stump ability... although he may want to find a way to get his name in the paper. Norbert Dennerll seems to be a genuine guy, and with a Yellow Barrel of Magic, anything can happen. John Wolfe seems similarly committed and nice... and they all are putting in the work on the stump. So I congratulate them on their campaigns thus far.

Otherwise, let's end this lull... well, maybe keep it, just through the weekend... there's too much hoops on for politics to get in the way.

John
OH 13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Ever reach a point where you stop caring? UPDATED and UPDATED AGAIN

2006-03-14T05:55:00.000-08:00

I can't say I don't care anymore about the race, but between the NCAA Tournament (horrible job, Selection Committee, BTW) and the way this race is going, it's really tough to keep focused and motivated on this. However, I will fight through, and post a bit on the recent past.

1. Anti-Capri wear.

Yep, there's now stylish Anti-Capri wear for anybody of the anti-Cafaro movement, at the Anybody but Capri Shopping Mall . I'm not sure that the thong is indicative of the values voters like in DC, but hey, no one asked me.

What is interesting, however, is the coverage of it today in Openers. Turns out, Karen Kilroy is the mastermind behind NEOhio's newest shopping experience. This caught my eye, especially considering that the text says she is not aligned with any candidate, beyond designing John Wolfe's website. Has Karen left the Wolfe Campaign? I have a press release in my mailbox, from the address press@wolfe2006.org, from "Karen Kilroy, Wolfe for Congress" dated Jan. 12, 2006. If she has, all's good. If not, our friendly neighborhood 79-year old candidate has some 'splainin' to do. UPDATE: Karen explained in the comments. She is no longer on the Wolfe staff, and is doing this on her own.

Frankly, I hope she has and it's above board, because it's very indicative of the bizarre nature of this race. I had a feeling when the three of us started this blog that this race would be a melding of the absurd and the sublime, and and an anti-Capri Cafaro shopping mall certainly qualifies in one, and possibly both of those categories. Although, again, the thong has limited campaigning value, unless that campaign is going where only Clinton's interns have gone before...

2. Cafaro Infomercial #2 was up. I watched bits and pieces of it... it's an infomercial for chrissakes! I did catch Cafaro making a response to the Traficant issue, which was a surprise. Otherwise, it was an infomercial.

3. Are Grace, Kucinich, and Sawyer going to bother with websites? Haven't seen ones yet (although they could be buried in some google algorithm). Please issue a release if you guys are putting one up, so we can link it, and give it a plug.

4. Fun with other websites. When searching for Gary K's as yet apparently non-existent website, we ran across Dennis Kucinich's website (of course, for actually going to the website, we're probably on a government watch list now). Interesting things we noticed about the picture at the top of the website (hurry, hurry and check it before they change it!) (or check this cached link). The photo of Dennis K with supporters apparently really liked a couple of the supporters, because the same people are on the right edge and left edge of the photo. More interesting is the sticker clearly visible on the mustachioed gentleman with sunglasses on the left edge (and on the right) of the top banner photo. Yep, that's a sticker from Cafaro's 2004 campaign. Photoshop, people! She's running against your bro, least you could do is photoshop a little love. UPDATE: A source sent along this link, with a photo apparently from the same event (note the same guy with mustache and sunglasses). Cafaro is marching with the assembled group.

Otherwise, people, get on the Ohio Blogger Bracket Bandwagon! Enter, win a front page post here. Heck, it's fun, and who knows, maybe this will be the yeat Gonzaga gets to the final four...

The Group name is Ohio Bloggers Bracket
The Group ID # is 34824
The Group password is buckeye (all small letters)

Get on board, and hopefully, I'll have more for y'all later,

John,
OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Ohio Bloggers Bracket

2006-03-10T13:23:00.000-08:00

Consider this your written invite. It's hosted at Yahoo, because we're lazy and Yahoo is easy. It's under Yahoo Fantasy Sports, Tournament Pick'em. (Just click the link, and follow the easy as pie instructions. )

Create a Pick set name, then choose Join existing Group.

The Group name is Ohio Bloggers Bracket
The Group ID # is 34824
The Group password is buckeye (all small letters)

We are the first registrants, the oh so originally named Ohio13.

Hope to see everyone register. Heck, a free front page post should be great incentive. Candidates especially should get involved... get your free ink here. Emily's List, Capitol Hill Staffers, and Campaign staff... you all visit, so you all can get your free shot to reach our readers.

Best of Luck (although when...uh... if I win, what will I do with a free front page post?),
John
OH13

Another weekend, and so much going on

2006-03-10T07:42:00.000-08:00

Lessee, lessee... So much to cover, so little time, and so much basketball...

Firstly, the Lorain Morning Journal had a piece today- Sutton got a pledge of support from the Steelworkers , and a pledge for $5K. Must be a rules things, but my reading is that it was not actually an endorsement.
''It's as close to an endorsement as we can possibly get,'' said Brommer. But that's entirely semantic... Steelworkers *Heart* Betty.

My favorite part was where the Steelworkers kindly remind us that a certain former Congressman supported a certain piece of legislation that may not have been, well, you know, in any way beneficial to Northern Ohio.

Brommer took a shot at one of Sutton's opponents, former U.S. Rep. Tom
Sawyer, citing his support of the North American Free Trade Agreement.''Workers
have been fighting with a race to the bottom of the economic ladder, and the
impossibility of competing with Third World wages,'' said Brommer. ''Someone
should have realized that, and that someone should have been Tom Sawyer.''

Of course, Tom Sawyer responds:

Sawyer responded that his support for NAFTA was mistaken, and that
otherwise his labor record is impeccable.''It's been an extreme disappointment
to me, as I'm sure it was to Bill Clinton, John Kerry and Al Gore. It simply has
not had the effect that people who supported it wanted it to have,'' said
Sawyer. ''Betty wasn't there, so she didn't have to make that choice. She was
fortunate.''

So, other than pounding a nail in the coffin of the American manufacturing sector, and hence the
union movement, Tom Sawyer was good for Unions. And the argument that his support was a mistake... well, he has never said he would vote to pull us from NAFTA, nor has said he won't vote for more trade pacts like NAFTA. And Tom Sawyer wonders why he gets no union support.

As for Capri Cafaro, she got an endorsement too (or released an endorsement we already knew about from her website). C.J. Prentiss, Ohio Senate Minorty Leader is on board with Cafaro.
Her quote:

''Capri Cafaro has shown to me, and to the people of the 13th District, the
vision, energy and insight to be a forceful and successful advocate for the
working men and women of Ohio,'' Prentiss said in a release issued by Cafaro's
campaign.

This one is curiously interesting, because Prentiss served in the State House for much of the same period as Betty Sutton (Prentiss 91-98, Sutton 93-2000). They worked together on a number of issues, and to a great extent, shared the same legislative priorities. It may say more that it appears that she's not endorsing Sutton. Or it may not...

Otherwise, this blog is curious about WHERE THE HELL IS BILL GRACE?!? We heard a whole lot right at his announcement, but since then, he has been quite under the radar. When Gary Kucinich gets more attention than you, you are doing something wrong, campaign-wise. Any Grace sightings are welcome.

Tomorrow, we'll be posting the info on the Ohio 13 Blogger Bracket Challenge. Free front page post for the winner. Otherwise, this weekend is dedicated to basketball... Will the Buckeyes finagle their way into a number 1 seed?

Ohio13

The silence is deafening

2006-03-09T11:58:00.000-08:00

So far, not a single campaign has released its middle school transcripts. It is clear that our field has something to hide. As this silence continues, it becomes clear that Tom Sawyer's childhood may not have been quite as idyllic as it was portrayed in that book... Sure, he'll blame Huck Finn for the real bad behavior, but we know better.

Otherwise, it's been vewwy vewwy quiet... well, at least in district. Washington is all in a tizzy, as it apparently becomes more and more convinced that Cafaro is for real and might just win. Ellen Malcolm (the grande dame of EMILY's List) sent out a fundraising letter for Betty Sutton today, which is notable in that it mentions Cafaro's name nearly as many times as it mention's Betty Sutton's. No other challenger gets such special treatment. No other challenger gets mentioned by name.

To translate into conventional political wisdom for everyone: Ellen Malcolm, by naming Cafaro and no other candidate (besides Sutton, of course), has essentially come to the determination that this is a two horse race, and that right now, Cafaro is the favorite. You don't mention your
opponent unless your opponent is winning, as a rule... that's where you get candidates saying "my opponent" rather than the opponent's name a large amount of the time. She didn't mention Tom Sawyer (who actually, would probably win if election day were tomorrow... he's trying to get that passed through the Ohio legislature, we bet), nor any of our other characters... for the exact reason that they are not threats to Sutton.

We guess what is most puzzling about the attacks this week is not that they're coming. Every D candidate worth their salt had to be gunning for SMH, because they know her money puts her in a unique position. However, this week, as noted in the Hill, the GOP is already attacking Cafaro. Seems to us that if the GOP wanted to run against SMH in the general, they'd spend some time attacking Sawyer or Sutton. Maybe the GOoPer intellegensia know something we don't... Either they're pretty sure Cafaro's gonna win, or they would prefer to face another candidate. Neither conclusion fits in perfectly with what we've thought thus far, so maybe there are still more new tricks in this race.

In Other news... We are almost tournament ready. This weekend, we will announce the Ohio Blogger Bracket details. All bloggers are welcome (heck, we guess everyone is, since we're not going to be able to effectively determine who meets whatever eligibility criteria.) To the winner, we will give the opportunity to make a post on the Ohio13-related topic of their choosing. As long as it's not obscene or libelous, or otherwise puts us in danger of serving time or getting sued, write whatever you want. I can't wait to see what happens....

OH 13

Desperate Times

2006-03-08T07:37:00.000-08:00

The more we read and hear, the more and more it appears that Capri Cafaro has to be the real big favorite in this race. We've not been convinced of this thoroughly, as a multi-way primary is notoriously unpredictable, and money cannot buy an election alone, and Cafaro has some negatives, and all that good stuff. But in politics, the more desperate the attack, the more likely the person being attacked is ahead. And today, we have some really desperate attacks coming out.

The strangest attack, one which is almost humorous, is covered in the Hill and in Openers this morning, is that Capri Cafaro interned for Newt Gingrich for a few weeks in high school, and her father hosted a party for Newt in 1993. So, keeping in mind that Cafaro graduated from high school at age 15, she is being hammered for things which have happened before she was legally allowed to drive. It's one thing if she had murdered someone or committed a serious crime as a juvenile; no matter how much you dislike Gingrich, interning in his office for a few weeks as a fourteen year old fails to meet that standard... It's something of an unwritten rule in politics that what people do before a certain time in their lives is not fair game. If that time is age 13 now, woe betide a large number of candidates nationwide... heck, does Candidate X have to worry about the time he pulled some girl's hair in 4th grade now? Candidate Y had a beer when he was 15, let's string him up! In response to this, we at Ohio 13 call on all candidates to release their 7th and 8th grade transcripts...

And attacking her for her father throwing him a party is similarly desperate maneuver, and one highly likely to backfire. Yes, Capri Cafaro's father is somewhat more notorious than the average father of an aspiring Representative, but in 1993, Capri was 15 or 16, and not really in a position to say, "Daddy, your political values are wrong and I will not countenance your holding a party for the Minority Leader of the U.S. House of Representatives." If we start holding candidates accountable for what their family believes, do you honestly think that is a positive? Will we disqualify people because their grandfather donated to Goldwater?

Yes, we are fully aware that there are people who do not like Capri Cafaro, and that some people think she is a flawed candidate. However, attacks like these, whether they came from her primary opposition, or the GOP, do far more to show how flawed her opponents are than they reveal anything useful about Cafaro. If the best the opposition can do is say that she was a teenage Republican, her daddy is bad, and her roots show, the opposition has serious issues.

Honestly, this is not meant to be a defense of Cafaro; while we do kinda like her, we like a whole bunch of these candidates... we in Ohio 13 are blessed with a strong field of quality candidates, and most have significant reasons why they deserve your vote. And as the central figure of this campaign, of course Cafaro's going to get attacked from all sides for everything; it's part of the game (and our favorite part). It's just that if she is such a weak candidate, like so many people seem to think, why are the opponents making such weak attacks? Surely, they have something better than who her dad threw a party for? You'd think they'd have video of her strangling a puppy or clubbing a baby seal, with the emnity she engenders.

So in closing, now that the early teens are fair game, I expect the field to release their middle school transcripts immediately. I know this may be harder for Dennerll and Wolfe, as due to their age they may predate compulsory schooling (we kid because we love!), so we'll accept amusing anecdotes about the 1930's and 1940's in their place. The rest of you, please send your transcripts to the email listed below.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

People,

Weekend Roundup, or failing that, an infomercial

2006-03-06T06:52:00.000-08:00

Well, as we know by now, and as Pho has covered, Capri Cafaro hit the airwaves with her infomercial. Pho was not impressed. Frankly, I thought the ad was a bit much, but I find it difficult to be too critical when a candidate at least tries to put something forward. Yeah, she stumbled on some words, moved around too much, and her plans may or may not work, but hell, she's the only candidate with any kind of plan, as of yet. Occasional vague issue pronouncements are all we have from the rest of the field.

A couple of quibbles with Pho's piece, which should be commended on the whole because he made it the whole way through the ad (and I don't care how big a political junkie one is, making it through a 30 minute political ad is an act of heroism), and raised some strong points as to potential spanners in the Cafaro works. First, I don't think it's fair to draw the conclusion that Cafaro will have no ground game because she's on the air. It's March... groundgame season is just beginning. Second, as far as saving receipts being a problem, I just did my taxes. I save my receipts for tolls and gas, which are a pain in the ass, because they'll save me a few bucks. I think i'd find a way to save my proof of purchase for a car or appliance if it could save me a good deal more money. I'm not an economist (My B+ in Econ 101 notwithstanding), so I'll not comment on the practicality of the plan in the greater sense, other than to say, i'd figure that lowering costs of goods, however indirectly, would increase demand, even if the goods are somewhat inferior in quality (and I'll let Pho deal with that fight on whether U.S. cars are inferior to Japanese autos. I'm biased towards late-model junkers of any extraction, and barely know how to change the oil.).

Frankly, the ad bored me, because I'm not a policy wonk, and Cafaro is. And yes, the infomercial is a medium ripe for poking fun. But now, she's on the record, and that is something.

The real issue may be the net which Cafaro finds herself in... to those opposed to her, she's in a no win situation. If she had done nothing, she'd be accused of not having any ideas. If she publicizes ideas on the air, she's trying to buy the election. If she buys 30 second ads, she'll be accused of being vague and incomplete. Buy an infomercial, she gets hammered for that. I get the idea that some of her critics will only be happy if she jumps off a bridge. Well, I guess thems the breaks when your name is the one on the marquee.

Elsewise, not too terribly much to report. I'm sure everyone did the events and made the rounds this weekend, but frankly, my attention was elsewhere, and i did not care too damn much. I mean, honestly, it's championship week! March is just a rotten time to have a political campaign... It should be a monthlong semi-holiday to celebrate the glory that is the NCAA tourney. Go Buckeyes. If there is sufficient interest, I may sponsor an Ohio13 bracket poll (for bragging rights only, natch). I'll certainly post my bracket here, because, in the scheme of things, it's what really matters.

More for ya soon, some of it not related to basketball, I swear.

John
OH 13

Filling the MSM void, and weekend open thread

2006-03-03T08:17:00.000-08:00

Sometimes, we wonder if we really matter. Then "journalism" like what we see this morning happens, and we realize we exist to fill a void. Yep, the Elyra Chronicle Tribune apparently decides to only cover the opening hour or so of events in the district, managing to miss the most important stories in the process. Oh well, we guess we're here to cover for the MSM when they get lazy.

The ECT has a story today discussing a candidate forum held at the UAW Local 425 Hall. Or, we should say, discussing the first hour or so of it. From the article, one would guess that only three candidates showed up, including only two of our cast of characters, Sawyer and Grace. Boy oh boy, do they miss the lede.

First, Dennis Kucinich was there, to speak in place of his brother. Maybe there's a hidden cache of celebrities in Elyria and Lorain that make the appearance of a sitting Congressman unworthy of note, but barring that, we would think it warrants at least a passing mention. As well, it neglects to mention that Cafaro, Sutton, Wolfe and even Dennerll were in attendance. Cafaro's appearance seems particularly newsworthy, considering the UAW endorsed her and all. (Sources say that this event continues the pattern of pro-Cafaro crowds, which considering the previous fact, should not be considered surprising. Sutton acquitted herself fairly well as well, particularly in comparison to Grace and Sawyer).

The ECT is nice enough to give Grace and Sawyer a venue in which to engage in their favorite hobby: in their free time, they apparently both are avid amateur revisionist historians. Bill Grace when questioned on Wal-Mart:

“You will not find me either shopping at Wal-Mart nor hear me defending them,” Grace said.

We don't need to hear you, Wal-Mart Willie, we have documentary evidence.

''That's the knight in shining armor of the residents who don't want Wal-Mart,'' Grace said of the design review board. ''Whatever is offered, the residents (who don't want Wal-Mart to come in) won't likely be satisfied.''
Gibbs accused Grace last night of lying to citizens regarding the Planning Commission -- which will discuss the issue today -- and Wal-Mart. He also suggested Grace has an underlying motive with Forest City Land Group, the developer that owns the Chestnut Commons property.
''Apparently, you like to hit somebody (blind-side),'' Gibbs said to the mayor. ''Maybe you have an underlying motive with Forest City.''

yep, those mean old constituents are being mean to the poor defenseless megalith, and no matter how Wal-Mart Willie tries to thrust the Wal-Mart on them, there's no pleasing them. Bad constituents. Bad, Bad Bad constituents.

And of course, it's not an article unless it includes a discussion of that old "political misstep" by Tom Sawyer. That's like saying that Ann Coulter has a slight lean to the right Tom Sawyer on trade:

“We need to learn from the experience of the last 25 years and work together to rebuild Northeast Ohio while strengthening our global alliances,” Sawyer said. “We also need to make sure members of the World Trade Organization exercise al the leverage they can to erase the trade disparities and continued exploits of cheap Chinese labor.”

In other words, it's not my fault that after I voted to give away America's leverage in the global economy, it's the WTO's fault for not doing what we want. Geez Tom, who woulda thunk that if you give up economic sovereignity, bad stuff would happen? We're sure no one saw that coming... If you invite a child molester to run your Boy's and Girl's club, you can't express surprise when a child gets molested. Tom Sawyer is tryng, though.

As for the open thread, our question is, what sources, MSM and Blogs, do you find the most and least reliable? Who do you trust for your political info? Catch ya Monday.

Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

DC Conventional Wisdom via Charlie Cook

2006-03-02T12:22:00.000-08:00

As none of us are particularly wealthy, able to spend ready cash on things like The Cook Report. Fortunately, an excerpt of a recent breakdown of the 13th race from the Report fell into our greedy little hands.

For those who don't know, The Cook Political Report is the work of Charlie Cook, and it describes itself as " an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. In 2004, we moved to an online-based publication." It is widely read and respected by professionals in the political field, and more importantly, it is a good guage of what the DC "Conventional Wisdom" has to say about the race.

It discusses four candidates in particular, Cafaro, Sawyer, Kucinich and Sutton, and gives a brief mention to Grace as well.

Briefly, Pros and Cons from the report on each candidate:

Cafaro
PRO- Money
CON- Traficant (shocker there, huh?)

Sawyer
PRO- Name ID
CON- Weak fundraiser

Kucinich
PRO- Same name as brother
CON- Can he tap into brother's donor base or the liberal anti-war blogging community (judging by reaction so far, probably not)

Grace
PRO- Political Base
CON- Money

Sutton
PRO- Establishment fave, some labor support
CON- Expected labor support split by Cafaro, money, long time since last on the ballot.

Yeah, real groundbreaking stuff here, nothing we couldn't have drawn together, I know. But more interesting is the general election analysis (which assumes Foltin wins the GOP nod).

"And while national Republicans express support for Foltin, it remains to be seen if they will ultimately invest money here. After all, the first priority of the Republican Congressional Committee is to protect their vulnerable incumbents and open seats. This is not a cheap district in which to play offense."

Conventional Wisdom is saying that Foltin may get the "placeholder" treatment from DC. He may be "cannon fodder." It also mentions concerns about his ability to raise money, which will be amplified if he does not get that GOP national support.

Just wanted to share...

OH13

Sawyer's poll, Hoffman's agenda, and other fun stuff

2006-03-02T06:47:00.000-08:00

On a campaign, sometimes you need a puff piece, when things are looking bleak and when you want to regain faith in yourself and your flagging campaign. Any good campaign knows the journos they can go to in order to get this kind of unfailingly polite, almost sycophantic piece. I think when Tom Sawyer looks at Steve Hoffman, the line from "The Waterboy" before the pivotal onside kick scene pops into his mind. "Yeah, that's my bitch."

Yes, Tom Sawyer knows he has a friendly face in the media crowd. Today's ABJ has an article today that is almost saccharinely sweet towards ol' Tom. The title alone, "Is NAFTA now Sawyer's friendly ghost?" manages to make his huge, overriding negative, sound almost happy and joyful in nature and tone. Yes, you know this is a puff piece when NAFTA is no big deal to voters anymore (and frankly, does anyone believe the poll results that only about 32% of DEM PRIMARY VOTERS care about NAFTA? Wow, they must have really softened that question. And note he doesn't give an actual vote percentage as impacted only by this question)

He manages to hide the facts that could make the report less Sawyer-rific; Just in passing, he notes the poll happened before the polling deadline, and if one reads combines an early statement in the article :

"On the Democratic side, Akron's Tom Sawyer is the closest thing to an incumbent."

with the total of 35% undecided, and the fact that Tom Sawyer is, practically, the incumbent, this means that, should one apply the incumbent rule, Tom Sawyer is about maxed out in support, and likely can only go down. And unless you live in Steve Hoffman's rose-colored world, you recognize that this poll is not the great great news it appears to Tom Sawyer.

Of course, Hoffman is there for Sawyer when Sawyer needs some Faux News-esque spin. This isn't the first time. Remember this piece, where Hoffman seemed almost in tears that Sawyer was being discounted because mean old working people and unions didn't like being lied to about Sawyer's NAFTA vote, including the following quote:

"What's really misleading is that the anti-trade mentality looks backward, envisioning a different time, when low-skill, high-wage jobs in heavy industry were available even to those who did not attain a high school degree.
The ultimate betrayal is to sell voters on the idea that that those economic conditions can somehow be recreated if only free trade is halted."

Yep, basic democratic values of protecting American jobs are evil. We must become Republicans, according to Sawyer and Hoffman. Join the global community, because every job we export means Wal-mart has a bigger potential employment pool.

A quick Lexis-Nexis search will reveal that Sawyer may be Hoffman's Valentine. This is more of the same pro-Sawyer puffery for Hoffman.

Having not seen the entire poll (because apparently OH 13 is not reliably pro-Sawyer enough to be vouchsafed such information), it is difficult to say it is good, bad, mediocre, or a push poll. Judging by Sawyer's past experience, where his polling claimed a big lead just before Primary Election Day 2002, only to get crushed by Tim Ryan, we're really biased towards skepticism. But too much smells here to give it much credence.

the Ohio 13 blog editors
We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Burtzlaff's site is up

2006-03-01T10:36:00.000-08:00

yep, we get to meet yet another GOP candidate... Paul Burtzlaff. Can't be critical of him, as much as we want to... a chaplain in the Naval Reserve, a pastor at St. Paul's Lutheran Church. Probably a good guy... and should he choose, he can ask Foltin some interesting questions about family values.

In other news, we are two months and one day from election day. In this time, we will hear stories about Cafaro being corrupt, about Sawyer selling out working people, about Sutton being an untra-liberal DC tool, about Kucinich being even more liberal than Sutton and hoping people confuse him with his brother, about Grace being a Wal-Mart shill, about Wolfe being too old, about Michael Lyons being known by no one outside of immediate family, and of course, about Norbert Dennerll's Yellow Barrel of Magic. Let's all remember at the end of this 2 month, 1 day adventure, we need to make sure that whoever gets through this needs to win in November, and attack accordingly. YES, ATTACK... get ALL of the candidates vetted in the way only a primary can. Remember, whether or not you have a favorite, all candidates have "negatives," and it's better for the candidates to have them vetted now than in the general. Don't hold back on any of them, within the bounds of fairness and rationality. It's one thing to attack a candidate, it's another to just go gunning for them no matter what they do. And whoever survives (even SMH) will be better than Foltin.

So, let's let the fight begin in earnest people... As an old football coach might say, play tough, but play clean.

OH13

Sutton's website is up

2006-02-27T13:31:00.000-08:00

Wandering the internets, we found that Betty Sutton has her site up. We will be adding the link shortly to our list o' sites. Not bad, although the media gallery could use some work. Not to imply EMILY's list might be biased, but they're the source for half of the positives there. Also no issues as of yet, but as someone who has worked in the business, I can't be too critical. Those little issue statements provide the biggest headaches. Otherwise, it's a quality, functional site,

OH13

The Bustle, Bluster and Bulls**t: A Weekend Recap

2006-02-27T09:47:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the hiatus. I (John) took a jaunt to Philadelphia... life without the occasional authentic Philly cheesesteak seems pointless. As usual, my trip gets scheduled at the worst possible time, vis a vis the campaign in the thirteenth. One Meet the Bloggers event with Betty Sutton (thanks Redhorse at Psychobilly for taking my questions there), a Cafaro infomercial taping , and a couple of "cattle call" type events for candidates, a Northern Medina County Dems event, and a spaghetti dinner with the Lorain AFL, at which most of our Dems could be found. The Elyria Democratic Women also had an event. But I will tell ya, that cheesesteak was DAMN good.

So, one at a time...

SUTTON AT MTB
It's obvious that Betty Sutton made an impression on the gathered assembly (PsychobillyD, and Word of Mouth give their impressions). I, and my fellow editors have yet to listen to the full transcript, and will reserve final judgement until then. A couple of responses seemed a bit wanting, but there were also some signs of Sutton getting it. At least as made to appear by the transcripts portions we've read, she seemed very measured in her speech, in a way that gives us bad Kerry flashbacks... Scott at Word of Mouth mentions that she "is not the grand orator." I guess we all have our biases in how we want our candidates to sound, though, and this is clearly the most we've gotten from Sutton so far.

CAFARO INFOMERCIAL
Certainly a novel idea, and another example of how the Cafaro team is doing the best job so far of reaching out to the "mainstream" media. I swear, Capri gets coverage for everything. She also appears to have a sense of humor, judging by her light-hearted acknowledgement of the "shopping heiress" tag. Of course, one quote in the article, from an unnamed campaign aide, has started yet another blogosphere s**tstorm.
$250,000 a week in TV. This figure immediately raised the ire of Jill at Writes Like She Talks. First, I find it doubtful that the Cafaro campaign would spend that much throughout the race; strategically, it's not sound, and while media is expensive, that much over eight weeks would create a degree of viewer fatigue that would be counterproductive. Maybe the last week, but doubt the whole way from now til the end. Second, so what? If she does, and Jill is right that votes cannot be bought, it won't matter. The candidate with the best ideas will win. If votes can be bought, then the unstated premise is that voters are not smart enough to make informed decisions, and will rely on who they've seen the most.

NORTHERN MEDINA DEMS EVENT
Bill Grace, Capri Cafaro, Betty Sutton, John Wolfe, Michael Lyons, and Tom Sawyer all showed up at the Northern Medina County Democrats function, according to multiple sources. The first source gave an evenhanded assessment of the candidate's performance, including the suprising tidbit that Michael Lyons seemed to gain some traction. The candidates all worked the room, and Grace, Sutton and Cafaro (who according to the source has spent more time on the ground in that area than any other candidate) were all well received. Sawyer kept a slightly lower profile (according to my second source), and John Wolfe was well liked, if as (source 1 said), a bit grandfatherly.

AFL-LORAIN SPAGHETTI DINNER
This event was well attended by candidates as well, as most of the field made an appearance. This room was competitive, but had something of a pro-Cafaro lean to it (Cooks wearing Cafaro T-Shirts, gold saw pins very visible). Not much more from the event yet, looking to get more details filled in.

ELYRIA WOMEN'S DEM EVENT
Don't have much concrete on this one, but if you do, let us know.

As usual, we welcome comments, corrections, missing details, and any other ideas. Feel free to get on board and give some input.

And yes, if you disagree, or we have offended you, or you hate us, or think we're evil, or bulls**t, or have any other complaints, let us know too.

OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Mem'ries... like the corners of our mind... we'll miss you 4

2006-02-24T07:02:00.000-08:00

Thanks to ohioexile for the tip.

Our group of seventeen, with whom we've grown so attached, is down to thirteen. And frankly, we're a little choked up. We spend a week getting attached to out lovable bunch, and like that, four of them get kicked off the ballot *sob*.

Yes, We are crushed, particularly that 3 Goopers are off the ballot, as this wrecks our Foltin and the seven dwarves theme. Goodbye, Lawrence Jaycox. So long, Anthony Cirino, Bye bye, Ruth Nader Abboud. And farewell, democrat Daniel Goulder.

This must be what it's like to see your kid go away to college, only to have him end up getting sucked in by the LaRouchies. We feel like we've lost members of the family, although admitted members of the family we don't talk about much.

In reality, we have no sympathy for this bunch, or others in similar straits across Ohio. If you cannot find fifty valid signatures, you don't deserve to run for block parent, not to mention Congress. Ohio's ballot access rules are a joke, and if one cannot meet the ridiculously easy requirements, one gets what one deserves.

A campaign can submit up to one hundred and fifty signatures. Any smart campaign will submit all 150 just to ensure that nothing can go wrong. In a perfect world, we would push for a more stringent requirement of 500 to 1,000 signatures, so that ballot access can prove to be something of an organizational test.

Well, goodbye you four. We hope you enjoyed your week in the eye of the political storm.

OH13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Gary Kucinich gets some ink, and DC fun

2006-02-23T06:43:00.000-08:00

Well, Gary Kucinich finally decided to step out from the shadow of his last name this week. The Plain Dealer gave him some ink, as his son shipped out to Iraq.

Before we question, analyze, critique, and otherwise discuss this, we should all tak a moment to pray (or think positive thoughts if you are not the praying type) for the safety of Gary Kucinich, Jr. and all Ohio and American soldiers, as they serve in Iraq, Afghanistan, and worldwide. Pro-war, anti-war, pro-Kucinich, anti-Kucinich, it's irrelevant... these are men and women who are serving their country, not an ideology, and they deserve all the respect, support and love we can muster for them.

Having said that, We're not sure using the occasion as the first excuse to get media for a campaign sits right with us. Just something seems wrong and exploitative about it; although, not having a child shipping off to war, it's difficult to be too negative about it. Kucinich gets a pass on that.

He then unveils his campaign message, which should be popular on the blogosphere- Iraq is bad, and Capri Cafaro is icky. We find it odd that Kucinich, in what is essentially his first media coverage of the race, will 1. flat out admit Cafaro is the favorite and 2. go full-court press against her. Our thoughts are that there are multiple other candidates who Cafaro's voters would go to before Kucinich, and that attacking Cafaro does nothing to help Kucinich... it helps Grace, Sutton and even Sawyer more. The Cafaro camp handled it well, essentially saying that Kucinich is not a legitimate candidate and that they'll continue to discuss issues. But still, in a nine person race, to have one central figure that generates such powerful love-hate reactions... makes our work here more fun if nothing else.

As for example 218 of the disconnect between DC and D13, We'll get a little inside baseballish procedural on ya here. Apparently, a DC media consultant contracted by one of the campaigns (do not have confirmation on which campaign, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to deduce which), is creating enemies at Cleveland Television stations, as this consultant calls daily to inquire as to whether the Cafaro campaign has bought and media. This information is normally only given in person, and this consultant has been told this repeatedly, yet he or she continues to call everyday. My source at the station says some people are really getting fed up with it. But hey, we think it's the perfect example of how DC insiders may not be exactly in touch with what's going on outside of the District.

Hopefully more for ya later.

My invitation to Campaign Managers/High ranking Staff

2006-02-22T06:32:00.000-08:00

If we haven't made it clear yet, we are junkies. We love the political game. Frankly, we're more interested in the behind the scenes intricacies of each campaign than the name at the very top of the masthead... so, we wanted to extend an invitation to every campaign's manager, coordinator, or high level staff people.

We would like to interview you, give you a chance to speak about the campaign from the perspective of a political professional. On the record (although we would not object to an off-the-record portion as well), so we'll try to leave out questions that would seriously jeopardize the health and well-being of your campaigns. Our feeling is that it would provide a great opportunity for a whole lot of people who have never worked in politics to get a feel for what it is like to actually be "pulling the strings" and living a political campaign.

Obviously, this idea only works if the campaigns want it to work. Consider it an opportunity to talk about the race in a professional, not just political, context. It will be beneficial to the readers, as hopefully they will gather an impression of just how much goes into living the campaign operative lifestyle, and how much thought and planning goes into a political race. This invitation is open to every campaign, D and R, in the 13th district US House race, as well as any statewide candidate. Please email us at ohio13 at gmail dot com if your campaign is interested, and John will be happy to discuss specifics with you.

This won't be a "Meet the Bloggers" type of thing with full audio available, as we're neither wealthy nor tech-savvy enough to touch that. However, we have a plan to allow as much of the content to be available as possible (we will discuss with the campaigns as they make contact).

So, give a shout out and let us know if you are game. Especially the very many candidates who haven't approached us yet... here's your chance in a non-confrontational forum.

OH 13

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

A weekend sighting...

2006-02-20T10:41:00.000-08:00

Well, one of our sources, a devoted political junkie with his ear to the ground for all things political in NE Ohio, got in touch with us this morning. He told us about a fundraiser held by presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ted Strickland, at Bricco in Akron. Apparently, three of our field were in attendance; Cafaro, Sawyer and Sutton. Not terribly surprising at its face.

However, what surprised this source, upon seeing the assembled throng, was that it appeared that the dignitaries in attendance were very strongly leaning towards on candidate, at least according to choice of campaign button. The source, who we know to be supporting a candidate not in attendance, said that he was surprised that a goodly number of people, including prominent members of the AFL-CIO and the Summit Democratic Party, were wearing Cafaro gold saw campaign buttons. He said that the event had a certain "home-field" feel for Cafaro, and that at least one of the other candidates was visibly uncomfortable with the surroundings.

Upon hearing this, we called another source, who we believed would have attended. Sure enough, he was in attendance, and he confirmed the seemingly pro-Cafaro mood of the room.

We don't know what to make of this, or if this is just an isolated one-off burp in the universe sort of thing, or even just the perception a couple of people (albeit trusted people), but Summit is the presumed base of Sawyer and Sutton. We would have assumed that public support would be at a minimum for any candidate, and what there was would be for Sutton. It is difficult to draw any conclusions from this event, and if any other attendees care to contact me, we'd be happy to get a number of viewpoints. We'd love to hear if others who saw what went down are in agreement, or if their read was different than that of our sources. Post in the comments, or email us at ohio13 at gmail dot com .

For the record, none of us were in attendance, as we've yet to be hired to that rich consulting contract (Campaigns! Hire us to that rich consulting contract!). But as we noted briefly before, one of the untold stories of this campaign is that Capri Cafaro is building up a good deal of institutional support, kind of under the radar.

Her campaign has been aggressive in reaching out to the party and union figures that play a large role in an election such as this, and has apparently been doing a good job at it. And the fact that her people have made inroads in Summit County shows that someone on their team must know what they're doing. With the negatives floating around about her, it was vital for her to counteract their potentially crippling effects by building institutional support and trying to shift the course of debate off of personal and onto political issues.

As we've said before, Capri Cafaro is and will be the central figure of pretty much any election she runs in, this one included. Rather than downplay it, it appears her campaign has decided to take advantage of it. This can set her up to be the target of a barrage of negatives later on, and potentially allow someone else to get late momentum and win, but it also gives her, for the time being, some ability to control the issue agenda at play in the race.

Still, it's a fine line that will take careful planning to work. The other campaigns will undoubtedly be working just as hard to shift the agenda to one that helps them and hurts Cafaro. Sutton will probably try to shift towards the "culture of corruption" theme, Sawyer towards "experience," Grace towards a "I know the problems of the district" theme. Their success at these attempts to shift the issue "battlefield" from one of Cafaro's choosing will play a very large role in determining a winner.

OH 13

Post-filing blues

2006-02-20T08:17:00.000-08:00

It's weird, but since the excitement and worries dealing with the filing deadline and trying to figure out who's running, who's not, and all that good stuff, the calm, almost sedate quality of this weekend was difficult to deal with. After a month of rumor-mongering and news breaking at a moment's notice, it's all set. We have our insanely large and colorful field. We're almost at a loss over where to go.

Surprises thus far:
1. The great number of candidates on the D side. In a year where clearing the field became de rigeuer for Dems in Ohio and nationwide, to see nine candidates, at least six of whom have held elected office, is surprising. The field was never going to be totally cleared; Sutton, Cafaro, and Sawyer weren't going to budge, more than likely. But it's almost as if each new entrant led to other entrants looking at the field and thinking that if the votes split up just right, they could actually win this thing. And the worst thing is, in many cases, they are probably right.

It is quite probable that the winner of the D primary will get less than 30 percent of the vote. The Democratic nominee will be the choice of far less than half of the Dems voting on May 2nd. This will make the summer far more important than normal for the race; this will be the time to mend fences and build up the support. An instant runoff ballot would be priceless, just to see who people's second and third choices are.

2. Bill Grace. We'd rate his entry, and particularly the rather disorganized and vaccilating manner in which he did it, as a surprise. After entirely disclaiming a run, less than a week later he changes his mind and announces. Most candidates in his situation would be smart enough not to close a door he may have to reopen. As well, if he were hoping for serious financial and organizational support, he should not have let multiple other campaigns get such a pronounced head start.

3. Tom Sawyer staying in. Tom Sawyer must have decided that with a big field, his name ID could go further. As we have stated before, we do not concur with this analysis, as should he be a threat, the unions will do eveything in their power to take him out. Meanwhile, it is still difficult to figure where his financial and organizational support will come from, and with the money other players have, name ID alone will not cut it.

4. The late rush by candidates. We understand that vanity plays a role in politics; some people like to see their names on a lawnsign. However, to see a number of candidates, including a semi-credible name like Gary Kucinich, file late without even going through the motions of having a press operation, strikes me as either vanity-inspired, unprofessional, dirty-tricks related (someone asked them to run to cut up the field to their supposed advantage), or some combination of the three. To file for Congress, and have the first it gets covered be the day after the filing deadline is not something a credible candidate does, unless they are of "800 lb. gorilla" stature. Kucinich, Goulder, Lyons (mayor of Richfield) are far closer to lemur than gorilla in stature.

Well, that's more of our thoughts. Thanks to the readers for your tips and leads, as well as your kind comments, hat tips, and encouragement. We will continue to try to break down this race, and give the semi-quality, semi-timely reportage, and high quality rumormongering you've come to demand from us here at OH13.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

The first attempt to untangle the mess (D)

2006-02-17T09:44:00.000-08:00

First, a point about the R side. While I refer to the race as Foltin and the seven Dwarfs (or Dwarves?), do not take this to mean that Foltin can just waltz to the nomination. Between the geographical distribution, some somewhat recognizable names, the ideology thing (assuming there's at least one wingnut in the bunch) and the sheer number of names on the ballot, he will have to put in some effort and money to make it through. He is clearly the favorite, probably 1-3 or 2-7 in horce racing odds, but not a sure thing. Maybe his jockey will fall off or something.

Now for the adventure of the D side. Our first thoughts are that the huge field, for being a huge field, is not a weak field by any means. Discounting Lyons and Goulder for the time being, the other seven candidates should be able to pull at least six percent of the vote, which sounds a lot easier than it is in a nine person field. Figuring that the two no-names gather 2 percent between them, that is 56% of the vote accounted for. essentially, this election is how the other 44% are distributed, and what factors lead to its distribution.

Dennerrl probably maxes out between 6 and 8 percent total; he may have some base left from his 2004 Senate run, but not much. Likewise, Wolfe will do slightly better than Dannerll, due to his hard work so far and better geographic base, but it's tough to see him much above ten percent.

So, that's four candidates, about 19% of the vote. Gary Kucinich throws a monkey wrench into the plans of Sawyer and Sutton, in our opinion. A recognizable liberal name who will, as an esteemed friend and interested observer noted, win some "uninformed" votes based on last name alone. He will be a factor among the liberal base. Plus, if he is able to tap into brother Dennis' financial support network, he will have the money to have a presence. Still, things would have to break very oddly for him to threaten victory. We figure him around 11 to 13 percent. Then comes Tom Sawyer, who we project to finish a disappointing fourth. Too much of his base support has been eaten up by other candidates, and that NAFTA vote will continue to hang around his neck. His name ID will be worth about 14 to 16 percent of the vote, but he is, in many ways, less likely than Kucinich to win. If Sawyer was a real threat, the unions would put on the full court press to ensure that anyone else outpolled him.

So, six candidates, 46%. We project that the top three candidates will split just over half of the vote. Bill Grace would be in our early third slot; he has an geographic electoral base (which is difficult to say for Sutton and Cafaro), and will have at least some money, as well as the credibility that being a current office holder entails. However, he is not necessarily a skilled "people person," and should he become a threat, expect him to be labeled with the Walmart Willie tag. Still, we could see him ranging from 15 to 20 percent. If he comes in around twenty, and things break right, he can win.

Our two favorites right now are Cafaro and Sutton. This will be a battle, and if it gets too dirty, they could end up battling for second and third, should the acrimony shift votes to Grace and others. Sutton has the DC establishment behind her, some union support, and will have a decent warchest. Cafaro will have a ton of money, more union support, and (in an untold story of the campaign), is doing a good job building local establishment support. We will not hazard to make a prediction, as so much will depend on the quality of the field operations, and the resonance of each campaign's message. Our thoughts are that Sutton, although she may want to get dirty, should not, for the same reason Gephardt shouldn't have gotten nasty against Dean in Iowa 2004. Yeah, Gephardt killed Dean, but managed to destroy himself in the process. Winner will be first to 25%, we'd guess.

So in reality, we see this as a three person race for first (AS OF RIGHT NOW). Sutton and Cafaro co-favorites, with Grace there to pick up should Sutton and Cafaro bloody themselves too much. We'll post an analysis such as this from time to time as events and circumstances change. And obviously, we expect to be most wrong about the exact numbers... so feel free to have at our analysis, and suggest where we may be wrong.

Otherwise, consider this the weekend open thread. This week's question is, which candidate will overperform our estimate by the biggest margin? Underperform by the most? And generally, tear apart this analysis, and let's figure out, from the junkie's perspective, what this race will bring.

Have a good one,

Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Update on filings

2006-02-17T08:57:00.000-08:00

Gary Kucinich and Daniel Goulder have filed.

OH 13

Well, I asked, and I received

2006-02-17T06:23:00.000-08:00

Just yesterday, we posted a missive decrying the lack of any positive argument for any candidate, as well as decrying a blog that has decided, under the cover of a non-partisan, unbiased facade, to become a hit site. A couple of posts written since then make clear that there really are two philosophies operating in the blogosphere.

Pho, representing the "legitimate" blogosphere, came thru with a positive argument for a candidate. He puts forth an argument for Betty Sutton that, while brief and not taking into account any of her negatives, at least makes the effort to say that a candidate is good, rather than a candidate is bad. While there are those who will disagree with points in the argument, including these authors, we are heartened to see somebody take us up on our challenge (or if he just randomly did it without reading our post yesterday, somebody realize we need some positive reason to vote for these people).

Meanwhile, the hit site we discussed yesterday (you may note we don't link to it... Same reason we don't link to the drudge report or Fox News... we have a low tolerance for propaganda), decided to keep on hitting. It linked to a week and a half old piece written by an out of state political consultant that trashes Cafaro that is a rehash of all the same accusations that have been coming forth since she was rumored to be entering the race. Surprise, surprise. The only candidate to receive any kind of favorable run from this site is Craig Foltin, whose scandals the author describes as "some baggage, due to a minor phone call scandal a few years ago." As we've posted here before, it's a whole lot more than that.

This isn't about people bashing Cafaro; this is about supposedly unbiased people attacking only Cafaro. Cafaro has a great deal of baggage, and she will have to answer questions about it, and she has started to already, although clearly not as completely as we would like as of yet. But will the outcry be the same when the baggage of the other candidates gets exposed? We really doubt it.

The blogosphere is about trust and credibility to a great extent. Agree with him or not, we trust Pho. We trust the people we have blogrolled, even when we do not agree with them. We hope they, and you, trust us; we've tried to be up front with the biases we hold (pro D, anti R; anti-establishment, among others). We don't trust hit sites that don't acknowledge their biases.

Later today, we'll have our first analysis of this race as currently constituted, as well as the weekend question, for your consideration. Till then

The Ohio 13 Blog Editors
we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

An attack of thoughtfulness interrupts blogging and Filings as of 4:05 PM (5 minutes past the deadline)

2006-02-16T11:06:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the downtime, but considering the last few days, it's been necessary. Between the takedown of Paul Hackett, the astroturfing scandal at High and Broad, and just generally being pissed off at the system under which we operate, it'd been a little disconcerting.

This is John, Editor #2 speaking here. I do most of the writing here at Ohio 13; Eds. 1 and 3 do more of the talking to people and digging up dirt. I never had a horse in the Hackett/Brown sweepstakes; I frankly thought both could do a good job and beat DeWine. That being said, when I saw how the shit went down this week, a part of my belief in my party died. I am not a young naif unaccustomed to the world of realpolitik; I've studied politics at the graduate and undergraduate level, and in the past, spent time working in the field in my home state. Still, to see what hamhandedness and backroom politics have done to the online activist base is disheartening. While I would be the first to admit that the online world has differing priorities than the Votersphere (TM), and I would beg all of my fellow bloggers to keep it in mind a little bit more, this still strikes me as a big f**k you to a great number of people who work tirelessly, without compensation or in many cases even thanks, for the greater good of the party. Whether you supported Brown or Hackett, you have to admit, the means were horrible, in the short and long runs, for the development of a strong Democratic party.

Well, back to Ohio 13, which leads me to what I find odd. This race will be absolutely insane. Too many strong but vulnerable candidates on the D side, one strong but ridiculously vulnerable candidate on the R side. There's a lot to talk about in this race. But so far, I have yet to see a single solitary well-thought out and researched positive argument for any single candidate. And I admit, we haven't been in that business here; as soon as we would do that, we'd get accused of showing favoritism and get crapped on, with some reason, by the readers and fellow bloggers. But with the establishment telling us to vote for Betty Sutton, with TV ads telling us to vote for Capri Cafaro, some commited activists telling us to vote for John Wolfe, Bill Grace telling us to vote for Bill Grace, and well, no one in particular telling us to vote for Tom Sawyer, no one has given a reason why. Instead, everyone has spent time on the attack, mostly against Capri Cafaro.

Admittedly, Cafaro is an easy target... It's just frustrating that everyone says "she's evil," and no one has come up with any reason to vote FOR any other candidate. Just kinda depressing... And trust me, there are negatives enough to go around in this race. My colleagues have had fun with LEXIS-NEXIS enough to know that Sutton, Sawyer and Grace have some rather sizable negatives attached to them too.

Shortly after beginning this online oddysey, a blogger whom the three of us respect greatly warned us that we should get used to others taking credit for our work. I laughed it off at first, as I figured that that was the nature of the blogosphere, shared info, shared credit, etc. Well, when I saw that someone had essentially taken our idea to create an info source for the race and turn it into a hit site against a candidate, I remembered that warning. It is kind of upsetting to try to work hard to remain somewhat useful, unbiased and relevant, and see that all we've managed to do is insipre a knock-off site that is dedicated to the opposite of what we had hoped to achieve. Oh well, enough about my bitchin, let's get to reporting...

This is going to be strange. All told, there are 7 Dems and 8 R's filed.

D's
Capri Cafaro
Norbert Dennerll
Bill Grace
Michael Lyons (?!?!?) Our first mystery candidate!
Tom Sawyer (So he did file... )
Betty Sutton
John Wolfe

R's
Ruth Nader Abboud (I think the Ohio Dems might want to remove her name from their website now)
Paul Burtzlaff
Anthony Cirino
C. J. DeLorean
Craig Foltin
Lawrence Jaycox
David McGrew
Joe Ortega

Well, the odds on there being more R's than D's filed were kind of low, but at least we should hopefully see some wingnuttery par excellence from some of the minor candidates. If you know anything about the non-Foltin/Ortega/McGrew R's, feel free to share. Can the 7 dwarfs arrange enough sexually explicit phone calls with Snow Foltin to make it competitive? Likewise, Mike Lyons on the D side better know something we don't... like who the hell he is, for starters...

So on the D side, we have 3 Summit (I know, Sutton's in Geauga, but she considers herself Summit), 2 Lorain (I know, Cafaro is from everywhere, but she has a house in Lorain County), one Cuyahoga (Norbert! Norbert! Do not even think of resisting the awesome power of the Yellow Barrel of Magic!!!) and one guy who has kinda drifted up from the ether of non-existence into this race. A 50 year age range from youngest to oldest on the D side. Well, this should be fun. The idea of the unintentional comedy and political shenanigans this race should bring is enough to restore my faith in the process. Almost, anyways.

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Oh what a day

2006-02-14T12:24:00.000-08:00

On a day like today, when all hell breaks loose and everything runs off kilter in the political blogosphere, it seems so difficult to write on subjects not directly tied to the issue at hand, which is, of course, the horsehead Paul Hackett woke up with, and the sudden desire for free time this engendered in him. (And if we have to post a link to explain, you really haven't paid attention today, have you?) The usual party backstabbing, in-fighting, and general internecine warfare that separates us from the other members of the animal kingdom.

Our thoughts are this, however. There is a general hubbub and clamor that this is wrong, with which we agree. Sherrod Brown, the ODP and DC probably should not have engineered this exercise in political gamesmanship, and now, they will probably pay the price. So, this begs the question, does this grand game hurt Betty Sutton?

It is widely believed that Betty Sutton is running with the tacit support and encouragement of Sherrod Brown, and the Washington DC establishment. Heck, the DCCC doesn't even list any other candidates for this race on their website. As one might presume from Sawyer's absolute lack of traction (particularly in DC, where one would imagine he'd pick up at least some support), the speed and fury of the oppo-dump against Cafaro (and to a lesser extent, Grace), and the general tenor and tone of DCCC statements about Sutton, the party and Brown could well be accused of attempting engineer a similar coronation here.

The question is, will the blogosphere punish Sutton for being Brown's (presumed) choice? Does the bitterness and bad taste left in the mouths of the blogosphere from this Hackett hacking come back to bite not only Sherrod Brown, but others whose strings appear to pulled by DC or ODP forces? Our initial thoughts are that we're not sure. Reading the minds of the blogosphere is nearly impossible; however, if the same intellectual weight and logic are applied to Sutton as is being applied to Brown currently, it can't be good for Sutton.

The blogosphere, more than anything else, seems to be taking on the establishment. Sutton may have to work to distance herself from the establishment to gain its favor. Or not, who knows? Just seems like an interesting potential snag coming out of the ham handed way the establishment pushed aside Hackett. Your thoughts are welcome as always,

The Ohio 13 Blog Editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Foltin takes the plunge

2006-02-13T09:42:00.000-08:00

Hat tip to Word of Mouth

Go there for the details and reportage, but it echoes rumblings we've been discussing for a while. Still have to wonder why. Foltin, in a year that the GOP is fighting charges of corruption and cronyism, is tainted by corruption and cronyism, with an added soupcon of sex scandal thrown in too. If he's trying to raise name ID and build a network for a future, bigger race, there has to be a better way. All he's going to succeed in doing is make sure everyone sees footage making Lorain look as downtrodden and dingy as possible (not a difficult task, admittedly) and ensure that "craig foltin phone sex" returns many relevant hits on Google.

OH 13

Monday, a new candidate, and some thoughts

2006-02-13T06:58:00.000-08:00

Well, it's Monday, we've survived the weekend, and it's back to the grind. Not much new to report, although there was one note of interest in the Elyria Chroncile-Telegram. Apparently, someone new has decided to enter the race.

From the article:

Norbert G. Dennerll Jr., 76, of Westlake, a Democrat and a former Cleveland councilman, announced his candidacy Friday. The district includes parts of Cuyahoga, Lorain, Medina and Summit counties.

Dennerll served on Cleveland City Council from 1957 to 1964. He ran for the U.S. senate in 2004, losing 71% to 29% statewide to Eric Fingerhut. He lost in Summit and Lorain Counties by even greater percentages.

As far as other resumé items go, he and his wife own the Yellow Barrel of Magic. (Really, we can't make this stuff up... the possibilities are endless). He was also president of the United Methodist Metropolitan Council.

So, our thoughts? Dennerll has about zero chance, but never, ever, EVER discount someone with a Yellow Barrel of Magic. This race just keeps improving in entertainment value. A liberal politico pushed by DC, a former congressman with no traction and one horrible vote, a rich candidate with some baggage and even more money, a mayor who stood up for Wal-mart over his constituents, a 79 year old activist, and a 76 year guy who served on a City council outside the district 42 years ago and owns the Yellow Barrel of Magic. If we don't write a book after this race, we just aren't trying.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

C'est la weekend... jusqu'a Lundi

2006-02-10T11:04:00.000-08:00

Just wanted to throw out a couple of bits of new news and info before the weekend.

1. Joe Ortega got some coverage from the Elyria Chronicle Telegram today. He seems harmless enough, although I am curious to see what happens if/when Craig Foltin jumps in.

2. Capri Cafaro has opened a Headquarters in Elyria. Apparently she attended a union event last night, and was inviting people to an open house there today. Curious to see when and where the other competitors open shop (or announce the opening).

Otherwise, here is the weekend assignment: Who will and won't file? and what will the final percentages be in the D primary? Give the predictions your best shot, and post them in the comments. Otherwise, treat this as an open thread.

OH13

And the first to file is...

2006-02-09T12:30:00.000-08:00

John Wolfe. Congrats John. We know that sometimes, you may receive short shrift from us, and we are sorry. A multi-person primary is very difficult to handle. But we are honestly glad that you are in the race, and we wanted to give you props for being first to file. Have a good race, and all the best to you and your team.

OH13

The blogosphere and the Votersphere (TM)

2006-02-09T10:08:00.000-08:00

The more we immerse ourselves in the blogosphere, the more apparent it becomes that the blogosphere and the Votersphere (TM) look at the political world in markedly different ways. We in the blogosphere tend to be more liberal, better informed, and more demanding of candidates that the Votersphere (TM). The problem is, the blogosphere tends to make mountains out of the molehills that the average everyday voter does not, and sometimes should not, care about.

Example: The entire blow-up about Paul Hackett's party registration. As revealed on the Plain Dealer's blog, and since rehashed and debated just about everywhere, Paul Hackett may be a new convert to the Democratic Party. Fair point. We in the blogosphere have taken this fact and turned it into the kind of farcical theater of which Eugene Ionesco would be proud. There have been accusations of dirty politics, leaking opposition research, and all sorts of other recriminations, that appear to coalesce around this diametric: If you like Hackett, this was wrong, if you like Brown, this was normal politics.

Now, when we go to the Votersphere (TM), what happens? Very few people care. This is the kind of gotcha type item that most voters will ignore, unless marketed well (and usually deceptively). Voters switch parties; for most people, the concept of party loyalty is a relatively weak one. There are so many real issues that matter to people in the real world, that when they hear of the kind of back-biting and bluster we engage in over petty shit like this, they become disengaged from the process. And trust us, the last thing the Democrats need are to have the average everyday working person disengaged.

Why are we bringing this up? Well, don't know really. As relatively recent entrants into the blogosphere, we are struck by the distance between the blogosphere and the Votersphere (TM) on so many issues, concepts and ideas. A lot of the time, the blogosphere has it right. But we all need to remember that sometimes, the Votersphere (TM) has it right too, and they outnumber us come election day.

In other news, another new Cafaro article (this time in the Cleveland Plain Dealer) and another new Sutton endorsement (the Ohio Firefighters). The article is of interest in that Cafaro gets to discuss her plans, and the other candidates have the position of commenting on them. As Capri states that we should pull out of NAFTA, CAFTA, and WTO and incentivize US production, it is difficult for the other candidates to do anything but agree. Bill Grace may come off the best of the commenting candidates, as he declined to comment. Wolfe is mentioned as supporting Cafaro's views on the topic. Sawyer is put in the miserable position of seeing a major issue of the campaign be NAFTA, which he helped pass. Sutton takes a shot at her that comes off as being politico-speak.

From the article:

Betty Sutton, a former state representative who also seeks the Democratic nomination, said "What the 13th district needs is the difference between action and rhetoric." (What does this mean? Was Sherrod Brown just rhetoric? Ed.)
Sutton said she opposes any trade pacts that results in the outsourcing of American jobs, and she thinks there are aspects of NAFTA that have resulted in that. Sutton, who has received a number of endorsements from organized labor, said she would support tax incentives and tax cuts that would help American families.

So, a plan is put forward, Sutton dismisses it as rhetoric, and then goes on to agree with all the aspects of the plan. Sutton may have DC locked up, but judging by the lack of press attention she has received in comparison to Cafaro, and some of her statements, in this campaign and in the past, she and her team need to work on their press relations.

Sutton's endorsement from the Firefighters, statewide, again comes as expected. A couple of locals had already endorsed, and as she had represented them in her legal practice, the outcome was never in doubt. It just adds credence to our theory that she is looking to build up the "establishment frontrunner" image. Smart strategy, really, particularly for a candidate who may not be as strong in dealing with the media as others in the race. This can cut the legs out from Sawyer and Grace, and but the race in far more of a one-on-one context between her and Cafaro.

We have started adding sites to our website listings. We've added the Plain Dealer, Elyria Chronicle Telegram (we'll fix the name on there later today), and the Lorain Morning Journal site. Cafaro has a site up (although it appears to be a place holder), so it is on our roll. As well, we have added some blogs that we respect and read, if not always agree with. More will be added shortly.

Well, that's the news, and we, like Dennis Miller's credibility, are OUTTAHERE.....

The Ohio 13 blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

The Air wars begin

2006-02-08T06:33:00.000-08:00

This morning, when one of our august group dared rise before the crack of 2:30 PM, they turned on the TV and did espy a Capri Cafaro political ad. A sixty second political ad. Very interesting to see her up this early, although long-time readers will know we are not surprised, having predicted this last month.

The ad was made like two ads in one; the campaign may well be able to split the two halves up and use them seperately, should they choose. The first half was all black and white, with photos of Capri and voice-overs giving her resumé. Standard biographical opening. Then, in color, the second half of the ad has Cafaro talking to the camera about how we need to "Save America's Workers." Judging by the print ad, and its appearance here in the tv ad, I'm ammusing we've found her slogan.

All in all, nothing groundbreaking in this ad, but we are pretty sure the important facet of the ad is that it is on the air at all. Frankly, this ad won't have any great impact in swaying voters; this seems more of a "hi, how ya doing? You're gonna have to spend a ton of money" message to Sutton, Sawyer, and Grace. The real fun will be how wach campaign responds. Will Sawyer stay in? Will Sutton try an early buy, or will she and her people use the opportunity to attack Cafaro? Will Bill Grace have second thoughts on how far $400,000 will go in this race? Let the fun begin.

In other news, Betty Sutton picked up another endorsement this week from Laborers Local 310, which, according to the press release, represents workers in Cuyahoga, Lake, and Geauga Counties. As for the significance of this, we are noticing that Sutton is releasing one or two endorsements each week. Strategically, it's probably the endorsement version of what Cafaro is doing with TV, getting out front, creating the aura of front-runnership. It's clear that at this point, this race has two frontrunners, Cafaro and Sutton, and the deciding factor will be how Wolfe, Sawyer, Grace et al. take votes from one or the other. This is why primaries are unpredicatble and thus why parties detest them so; one cannot rig what one cannot control.

Ohio 13

Oh, what a weekend

2006-02-06T10:08:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the absence, but frankly, the SuperBowl takes precedence over race coverage... had to make a weekend out of it. (Just wait til the NCAA Basketball tournament, we may need a guest-blogger.)

Well, as we discussed previously in the rumor mill, Bill Grace is in the race. Hat tip to Redhorse for the info (good thing people are paying attention while we prepare for sporting events.) Well, now this race gets fun, with a Lorain candidate there to split up the vote. We here have our doubts as to whether he can raise enough money to compete with Sutton and Cafaro, or pull enough votes in Summit. The other candidates will do a better job of pulling votes in Lorain than he can do in Summit, which will turn this election into a ground war between Betty and Capri. And like we mentioned late last week, his opponents' will probably work very had to connect him to Wal-Mart. Hope he knows what he's getting into...

Friday, Capri Cafaro hit the newspapers in a full page ad in Lorain and Elyria's papers. Reading it, we were impressed. Far more detail and specificity than one normally sees in a race, especially this early. Could be a smart move to get out in front on issues, as should the opponents try to attack her for, well, being Capri Cafaro and the baggage that implies, they appear to be dodging substantive debate. Also shows the other campaigns that this race is not going to be cheap... full page ads are pricey.

John Wolfe and David McGrew also got some press this weekend (link goes to Wolfe website's republishing of article). Apparently, they're neighbors on Mayfield Avenue in Akron. A pleasant and worthwhile read.

Swirling around the rumor mill, we've heard from two reliable sources that Tom Sawyer is leaning strongly against making the race. We're not prepared to say it definitively yet, as things change. But apparently, the support Tom Sawyer was counting on has not been forthcoming. Washington has disavowed him, and the unions, well, let's just say that he's lucky the unions don't put his picture on their urinal cakes. The behind the scenes money people also have picked other horses. If Sawyer runs, he'd be counting on the power of name ID alone to carry him, and with the strength and financial backing of this field, that is not a workable strategy.

Well, that's all for now. We promise to try to be more regular with our dispatches, barring major sporting events. Uh oh. The Olympics start soon... well, maybe we'll skip the preliminary heats of the 10k biathlon.

the Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Sutton's first financials

2006-02-02T09:06:00.000-08:00

Betty Sutton's financials are up. Not much to take from them. A few lawyers wrote big checks, and the Longshoremen made a 5k donation. all told, just over 20k raised by 12/31. These are very preliminary, obviously. She spent a grand total of 130$ during the filing period. If she maintains that burn rate, she'll be doing well. No other candidates had to file, due to FEC regulations on timing of filings (she's apparently the only candidate who had both declared, and raised over the threshold limit). The real test will be the first quarter numbers, and any other numbers the campaigns decide to publicize, as we'll have numbers for all the campaigns and get an idea of how each candidate fares in a crowded field.

It's tough to deal with this down time. Rumors are flying, and we can't deal with all of them, because, you know, as much fun as posting wild allegations and half-truths are, they don't exactly enhance our credibility factor much. Some, when we have solid sources, we'll distribute (see yesterday's take on Bill Grace). Others, let's just say we get a wide variety of stories and leads, and they can be inventive. Unfortunately, while we pride ourselves on our low standards of excellence and fairness, we do have some standards. We are fairly certain that Tom Sawyer is not a cyborg, for example, so it doesn't go to print. If we can get verification, we'll run it, so if anyone has factory specs, send 'em over. (just kidding sawyer people)

Can't wait till the fun starts,

OH-13

Whirr whirr runs the rumor mill

2006-02-01T10:11:00.000-08:00

Well, when lacking good hard news, sometimes, we have to invent it. Just kidding kiddies, but we have heard something out of Elyria from the kind of sources that make us believe there is some truth to it.

But first, a hat tip to psychobilly democrat for noting our work here. It is a well done blog with an interesting perspective, in not consistently either "psycho" or "billy." Either way, highly recommended.

Second, word around the Elyria/Lorain campfire is that Bill Grace may be having a change of heart. He's been approaching people trying to line up money for the race. Of course, Grace is hearing a whole lot of no's from these people, as the big names have lined them up. A decision has not been made, and I still suspect he'll eventually bow out, when he realizes he'll need around a million bucks to win the primary. But still, fun to hear the who's and why's of the backroom dealings.

Should he run, he has some work to do on the internets. The first result, when one googles Elyria Mayor Bill Grace, is from an Anti Wal-mart site, wakeupwalmart.com , which details how he stood up for the helpless multinational megalith against his mean old constituents. So, he should be prepared to be called "Wal-Mart Willie" by one or more of his opponent's in this race. As everyone is aware, Dem primary voters love Wal-Mart.

Otherwise, things are slow, at least in the net world. The print editions of the Elyria and Lorain papers had article on the race today, but not on their internet versions. They are trying to mock me with their absence, to be sure. Otherwise, we will have more as facts, rumors and wild allegations develop.

OH 13
ohio13 at gmail dot com

Pho on Cafaro and Residency in General

2006-01-30T09:01:00.000-08:00

As I had noted before, there are those in the NEO blogosphere that have not taken kindly to a Capri Cafaro candidacy. Seemed kneejerk at first, albeit somewhat understandable. Pho's Akron Pages has been among these. Well, there is a new post at Pho's discussing Cafaro, and we were struck by Pho's attempt to reasonably look at it, and make clear his objections. Everything he brings up will become an issue in the race, and his willingness to set ground rules for "fair game" in the discussion is admirable, if perhaps futile. He also acknowlegdes that Capri is not the Devil, and was no way involved with the kidnapping of the Lindbergh baby (not really, but he has some good things to say about her, which may be a NEO blogosphere first)

We do disagree with a couple of points in his piece however, and we'll be succinct. First, until we know more about Betty Sutton, and more about Capri Cafaro too, it's tough to make an argument about Betty Sutton vs. Capri Cafaro, as to whether or not "she (Capri) is so fantabulously better than Betty Sutton on anything that it's worth burning through hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to Dems."
The second is the continuing focus on where she has or hasn't lived. The House of Representatives, the Senate, and State Assemblies all around the country are filled with people who are not exactly "native" sons and daughters of the areas they represent, or are at least portrayed that way. In Ohio, Tim Ryan was hit with these arguments when he first ran for office because he spent time away at college and law school. Heck, Hillary Clinton is about as native a New Yorker as we are. Kennedies have run for office in more states than we've visited in our lives. There are legion stories of congressional staffers running to succeed their bosses, despite never having lived in the district. It is not unprecedented in any regard. It is one of the realities of politics that location can be overcome; Betty Sutton lives in Chardon (outside the district), and Tom Sawyer is just outside the district, thanks to the devilish minds of redistricters. Does that leave John Wolfe as the only legitimate candidate?

Accusations of cynicism have merit, to be sure. But is it any less cynical for Betty Sutton to not run where she lives because she'd have to face a difficult race against an incumbent? No, if only because almost every decision made by almost every politician is informed with a healthy dose of cynicism. Wesee it as both candidates have the right to gravitate toward the stiller waters and go after that open seat. While we understand that there are differences between their situations, we also see similarities, and believe that the candidates should run this race on stuff that might, you know, actually impact peoples lives. Like jobs, healthcare, stuff like that.

Overall though, a good read, and an impressive effort to raise the level of discourse. As usual, we highly recommend his work, even if we don't always agree with it (although we do agree with it quite frequently). All of these candidates will have enough mud and dirt to legitimately throw around on each other that we can have a swell time without arguing over who's lived where when.

The Ohio 13 Blog Editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

O Jack, we hardly knew ya

2006-01-30T07:55:00.000-08:00

Well, one down already. Ending a campaign that apparently lasted a whole week, Jack Schira has decided not to run, according to a news brief in the Cleveland Plain Dealer. In the piece, he says he plans to run for the State House instead. Good luck Jack, we'll miss ya, even though we never got a chance to really get to know each other. He also said he will probably support John Wolfe or Betty Sutton.

Otherwise, slow news weekend for this race. Politics and the pre-Super Bowl hype (two weeks worth!) just don't mix. So, if any one has Super Bowl predictions, let's hear 'em.

OH 13

Quick Update and Weekend Open thread

2006-01-27T13:24:00.000-08:00

Just a quick update, we've received official word of what I gather everyone has already guessed; Both Betty Sutton and Capri Cafaro have pulled petitions for this race. We doubt anyone more will, although, you really never know.

As for your project this weekend boys and girls, let's talk candidates. Who will you be supporting? Make a good positive argument for them. Make the blogosphere believe what you believe (although facts and supporting material are nice too.) Sway the folks who are reading. Here's your chance; take it to the comments.

We may have a post this weekend, but likely not, so, have a good one, and let's keep it clean people.

OH13

Grrr! Grrr! The fur starts to fly

2006-01-27T08:45:00.000-08:00

EMILY's List must know what it's up against. It's decided to try to beat up Cafaro early, as it got an article in today's Plain Dealer essentially trying to link Capri Cafaro to Traficant. Again, only surprise is that it's happening this early. Considering the effort to take her out this early, we're starting to think that the people in the know think Cafaro is the front-runner.

In reading the article, it's clear that we have two candidates very different in style. Capri Cafaro is quoted in the article with the following:

"If these people want to place the sins of my father upon me, that's testimony of how bankrupt these people are of real ideas and real solutions!" Cafaro said. "They're throwing up this puff of smoke because I'm not an ideologue. They're upset because I support parental notification for a minor child seeking an abortion."

Sutton's response:

Sutton, asked whether she supports parental notification for minors, said it is an involved question and that "issues of reproductive health must be between a woman and her doctor."

One is direct, one kinda dodges the question. Cafaro, who received criticism in her previous race for not responding vigorously to the "Traficant" attacks, appears to have learned her lesson. Sutton comes off as more measured and more like a politician, not even taking a stand on an issue where anyone who's done a Lexis-Nexis search or checked out her voting record knows where she stands. We think Sutton can do better, and will need to in order to win this race. Her staffers should make sure she never uses the term "involved question" again, to be sure.

It is notable that already, the rest of the field, including Tom Sawyer, has been reduced to "other Democrats running" status; no comments from any of them on this issue. That should be considered a huge win for Sutton and Cafaro. If they are able to be seen as the only legitimate candidates in the media, that's half the battle.

Well, we'll have more later. And we'll give a shout out to the EMILY's list staffer or staffers who drop by regularly. Thanks for your readership.

Ohio13

What If? The ramifications of a clusterf**k and new Sutton endorsement

2006-01-26T10:50:00.000-08:00

For a while, it appeared the Dem primary, while multi-way, was going to be kept to an orderly 4 or five player game. However, if one judges by the number of people who have pulled petitions (and Ohio's almost unbelievably easy ballot access rules), we could have a ménage à eight, nine or even ten. Oof. While certain to be entertaining, for the same reason that rubbernecking happens when people pass by a train derailment, it makes so much of what has been said, thought, or predicted moot, or at least dangerously obsolete.

As of now, it is safe to stratify the potential candidates into a few categories, based on seriousness, money, resumé, and general ability to be a factor in this race.

At the top, there are the big guns: Cafaro, Sawyer, Sutton. Just slightly below them, based on family name ID, is Gary Kucinich (although we still are not entirely convinced he will file). Next tier brings us Wolfe and Schira, who have had the savvy to get at least some media attention and grassroots support. Then, we have the cast of characters who've filed otherwise, Bowen, Neal and Shaw.

What role will these new faces take, should they file? Well, they make the draw for good ballot position that much more important, as if two of them are at the top of the ballot, and the big names are at or near the bottom, some uninformed or lazy voters won't bother to read down. More significant tho is that the three new faces, should they even draw one or two percent of the vote each, exascerbate the vote splitting problem in Summit County. These three names all at least drew their petitions from Summit, and what little base of support they may have probably resides there. Wolfe, Sutton and Sawyer also draw their base support from Summit.

As odd as it seems, all these new names could have a real impact. A primary does not have super high turnout, and as discussed previously, the breakdown of Summit votes will play a pivotal role in the campaign. The more fragmented it is (without one candidate sweeping it), the more likely the non-Summit candidates are to have success. And seeing the natural antipathy running between Lorain and Summit (in terms of this dirstrict's representation, at least), the candidates who do well in Summit cannot count on doing well in Lorain County. Boy oh boy, this could get fun, in a "When Animals Attack" on FOX sort of way.

In other news, Betty Sutton released news of endorsement by the Lorain and Barberton Firefighters, and this time, it was the Sutton campaign emailing it to us directly. That makes four campaigns who have taken the time and effort to make direct outreach. The rest of you need to get on the ball. As for the endorsement, this is hardly shocking, as the Firefighter's Union were a client of Sutton in her legal practice. But more endorsements never hurt, and they at least prompt bloggers like us to write something up on an otherwise slow news day.

The Ohio 13 Blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Fun With Open Secrets

2006-01-25T11:14:00.000-08:00

Well, we are nothing if not curious here at Ohio 13, so we decided to play at one of our favorite websites, opensecrets.org. We decided to see who the erstwhile candidates in the field had donated money to in Federal Elections. Always good for a chortle or a grin. Ya never know, maybe someone cut a check to Lyndon LaRouche, George Bush or some other fringe candidate/cult leader. The results only included donations of 200 dollars or more, so this may not be comprehensive, but it should be fun.

Deciding to get the big money out of the way first, we started with Capri Cafaro. She donated to Kerry and Ohio Dem party in 2004. No shock there. In fact, rather boring... while her family donates heavily (and did to her campaign), and some of the money goes across the aisle, Capri herself has no checkered donor history. Obviously, we've excluded her rather sizable donation to her previous campaign, but we were hoping for something really controversial, or at least interesting. Heck, with the reception she's received from NE Ohio bloggers so far, you'd think she'd donated to Joe Lieberman, but no.

Then, to continue, and hopefully find some adventure, we tried Tom Sawyer. In 2000, he cut a $1,000 check to Ted Celeste, and that's about it. Not necessarily exciting either. Maybe a little fewer donations than one might expect, but's hes had his own races to worry about, and without being a fantabulous fundraiser, money can be tight.

Well, maybe Betty Sutton would provide some excitement, we thought. And guess what? She did, at least a little. Turns out, Betty Sutton is hardly a prodigious donor; opensecrets listed only two donations of over $200 in sixteen years. One, a $1000 check in 1994 to Joel Hyatt, is rather boring, uncontroversial etc. But the other, a $1000 donation from her campaign committee in October of 1994, is far more interesting. Betty Sutton donated (or donated at least $200) to a grand total of one congressional candidate from 1990 to 2006. His name? Tom Sawyer. Apparently fair trade and NAFTA weren't important issues then.

John Wolfe isn't off the hook either; he donated $300 to Sawyer, in 1996. He also donated to Mary Boyle's 1998 Senate race.

Jack Schira donated $200 to the DNC Services Corporation in 2002, and otherwise, nothing comes up.

So, two candidates who strenuously oppose free trade have donated to a third, who's no longer in Congress almost entirely because of his support of free trade. Otherwise, these people are boring, donation-wise. No LaRouchies, no Bushies, not much activity in general. It will provide Tom Sawyer with one of those fun talking points; if my NAFTA vote was so abhorrent to Sutton and Wolfe, why did they donate to me shortly after it? And oddly enough, that kind of argument has somewhat more mileage that one might expect.

Otherwise, hope all is well throughout the 13th CD, and the people from DC who check in every once in a while. Remember, we filling out your consulting team, we're desperate to be underworked and overpaid.

The Ohio 13 Blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Petitions pulled from Cuyahoga and Medina Counties, and a caveat UPDATE: Lorain County as well

2006-01-24T11:31:00.000-08:00

Well, the Lorain phones still don't work, so we called around to Medina and Cuyahoga to get those counties' petitions. When speaking to the Cuyahoga Board of elections, they gave an interesting caveat: the candidate themselves does not have to be the person who pulls the petitions. This may lead to petitions being passed for people who may not intend to run. But hey, it's fun to speculate, so we'll report who's being circulated.

Cuyahoga:
Gary Kucinich (D): as in brother of Dennis, and an ex Cleveland School Board member. He'd be a big enough name to change the complexion of the race, although I doubt he'd win. Too many potential constituents live in the 13th because they ran away from what his brother did in Cleveland as its mayor.

Medina:
Jack Schira (D) - We knew him already.
Chuck DeLorean (R)- We found on an old Delorean Mailing List, about halfway down the page, discussion of a Chuck DeLorean, who the writer believed to be the brother of John DeLorean. It says he owns an auto dealership in Lakewood, Ohio, a suburb of Cleveland. What to make of this, who knows?

We will continue to effort Lorain County, and hopefully complete this list. If anyone else wants to give them a try, please do, and let us know what's up there.

UPDATE:
Lorain: Only two R's have pulled petitions, Paul Lehman and Lawrence Jaycox. No word on who the heck they are as of yet.

OH13 ohio13 at gmail dot com

Who's pulled petitions in Summit County? (As of 10:30 AM Tuesday) UPDATE: LORAIN NEEDS TO FIX THEIR PHONES

2006-01-24T07:59:00.000-08:00

Well, we are the naturally curious sort, so we made a call to the Summit County Board of Elections to check on who exactly has and has not pulled petitions for the 13th District race. The ease of ballot access in Ohio (50 sigs and 85 bucks according to the Secretary of State's Ohio Candidate's Guide) may lead to a strange election.

So far, five D's and 2 R's have pulled petitions in Summit County. Not surprising, except that of these, only three names (2 D, 1 R) we'd come across to this point are among them.

D's we knew:
Tom Sawyer
John Wolfe

R we knew:
David McGrew

New Faces
D
Ronald Neal, Jr.- Google proved to be little help. It came up with phone results for "Ronald Neal"'s in Avon Lake and Barberton.
Michael R. Shaw- As one might imagine, Mike Shaw or Michael Shaw brings up a ton of people. Should he decide to run, we'd like to ask him for our sake, to change his name to something more unique. Altho, according to this Wikipedia entry, there is a former pro wrestler named Mike Shaw who runs a wrestling school in Ohio somewhere. If this is the guy, this blog will write itself. If it is not, we'd like to request that wrestler Michael Shaw piledrive the other Mike Shaw, and get on the ballot in his place.
Richard Bowen- These darn common names. There's a dentist in Columbus, an architect in Berea, and a few others.

R
Ruth Nader Abboud- Well, at least we're pretty sure she exists. Although the lady at the Summit BOE said she pulled for the GOP nod, the Ohio Democratic Party Website lists her as a Democratic Officeholder (School board).

We will contact the other counties to see if others have pulled petitions there.

OH13

UPDATE: We have tried to call the Lorain County BOE to get who, if anyone has pulled petitions there. Apparently their phones do not work. Just dead silence. We will continue to check them out, however, and maybe, should whatever is happening there get fixed, come up with answers.

oh13

Sorry for the down time, and what should come next

2006-01-23T08:58:00.000-08:00

Sorry, strange weekend. Let's just say that real life can even interfere with the blogosphere sometimes.

As for news, Elyria Mayor Bill Grace has decided to sit the race out, according to the LBJ and the ECT. We respond with a only slightly muffled yawn, as we figured the noises being made about his possible candidacy were so far-fetched and unlikely as to make it infeasible. It would have been very difficult, especially at this late date, for Mayor Grace to raise the money that will be necessary to compete effectively in the race.

Otherwise, We have yet to mention Dave McGrew, who's running for the GOP nod in the race. There, we've mentioned him.

Essentially, here's what we're waiting to see:

1. Does Foltin run? Our best guess is no, but ya never know. If Bob Ney can survive probable indictment to keep running, Foltin must look at sex chat with police dispatchers and reprimands for cronyism and think that's small potatoes.

2. Who wins labor support? Labor will play a vital role in this district. We'll lay odds that Sawyer doesn't see much love. Sutton and Cafaro will battle it out for support. The State AFL-CIO is meeting this week to discuss Ohio races, and we expect this race will be heavily discussed. A win by either candidate here would be a huge boost.

3. Will Tom Sawyer follow through with the race? We're guessing it's fifty-fifty.

4. Will Sutton, Sawyer, etc. move to the district? Capri Cafaro upped the ante by moving into the district, and this may put pressure on the others to follow suit. Whatever happens though, judging by the NEO blogosphere's reactions thus far, it will be Capri Cafaro's fault. There seems to be a knee-jerk reaction to despise her in some quarters. Oh well, no one said it would be easy for her.

5. How big of an impact will social issues play in this race? In economic issues, it appears the candidates are all (except Tom Sawyer) on the same playing field. If the race effectively comes down to Cafaro and Sutton, it will be interesting to see where social issues break for the two. While neither could be confused for a conservative, Sutton hews as far left on most issues as is electorally feasible, while judging from her previous campaign, Cafaro is somewhat more moderate. We'll cover this comparison in-depth at a later date.

So, that's it from the main office. Make sure to leave a note letting us know what's going on, and get on us if we're missing stuff.

Ohio 13 blog Editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Another New Really Random Candidate?

2006-01-19T10:27:00.000-08:00

Well, in doing our due diligence to find the news on OH 13, we discovered a sign of perhaps another new candidate. At Politics1, an invaluable national resource for political junkies, it keeps a full list of potential candidates, and updates it regularly. We had not checked its listings for Ohio 13 candidates for a couple of days. When we did, we found among the names rumored, names debunked, or actual candidates, another person listed as a D. Joshua Franchetti. Politics1 gives his occupation as "Engineering Technician" and a link goes to his email address, but otherwise it provides no more info.

So of course, we google the name. Judging by the results, Mr. Franchetti has kept a low public profile. The first hit goes to Lake Erie Walleye Magazine's 2003 Braggin' Board, where partway down the page, a Josh Franchetti is pictured with a ten pound, thirty inch walleye. While we are not sure that this is candidate Franchetti, no other site found by google matches "Josh Franchetti", and "Joshua Franchetti" returns only a German magic site. Should his entry into the race be legit, we highly recommend some significant press outreach, STAT.

Either way, welcome to the party, and hope that walleye has enough ready funds to give a max donation.

OH13

Foltin still doesn't know... or he knows, but isn't letting on

2006-01-19T05:42:00.000-08:00

Well, the Lorain Morning Journal has an interesting article about Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin this morning. Apparently he's "thinking" about the race. We at OH-13 are thinking about running as a triumvirate of consuls to rule Rome and her terrirories, but that doesn't make the papers. Apparently the man, who didn't know whether or not it was him engaging in sexually explicit TAPED phone calls with a police dispatcher, now doesn't know if he's running for congress or not. Considering his memory, we hope he's written his name on his underwear, so he doesn't forget that too.

As a public service to the absent-minded mayor Foltin, we here thought we'd remind him of another thing he's done... it fits right in with the GOP's talk of ending corruption and cronyism in government.

From the May 25th, 2001 Plain Dealer article entitled: "Ethics panel scolds mayor of Lorain for giving friend a job" (EMPHASIS ADDED):

LORAIN - The Ohio Ethics Commission has reprimanded Mayor Craig Foltin for appointing a business associate to a city job last spring.

Foltin also supported the friend, attorney Michael Provenza, for a later Police Department position and most recently as parks maintenance superintendent.

Provenza was Foltin's campaign manager and owns four rental properties with him. Provenza was assistant city prosecutor in 1998, when Foltin was auditor.

The Ethics Commission said it did not recommend criminal charges against Foltin because Provenza did not benefit from the position financially. Provenza was hired as city sealer on March 13, 2000, but resigned April 25, 2000, and returned his two uncashed paychecks to the city.

Foltin said he has learned a lesson. "Before I make virtually any decisions, I better think carefully and examine everything," he said yesterday. "If I have any questions, I will certainly call the Ethics Commission."
***

So, Mayor Foltin gives a crony a plum job or three, gets caught, and the lesson he learns is to "think carefully before making virtually any decision?" Maybe he should have learned that politics should not be pay for play, or that corruption can get you in trouble, but no, he learned to think carefully. Although, after the naughty police dispatcher phonecalls, we're not sure the lesson took.

And note that he said "virtually any decisions..." We want to know, what decisions involving the management to the city of Lorain do not involve careful thought? Please list your ideas in the comments.

***

In other news, we'd like to welcome the House of Representatives staffer who came to visit yesterday. He or she was referred by searching for LaTourette on Google Blogsearch. So, assuming you are a LaTourette staffer, we have a deal. We'll set up a collection (so far, the three of us are up to $28.75) and donate it to the LaT campaign, if he shaves the beard and stache. C'mon, it's a good deal! Everyone, make your pledges in the comments.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Lorain vs. Summit

2006-01-18T07:24:00.000-08:00

While including parts of four counties, the major regional dynamic at play in the 13th District is the relationship/rivalry between Summit and Lorain Counties. Rep. Sherrod Brown is from Lorain, and at some level, that has bothered some of the Dems of Summit County, who would prefer one of their own. The perception exists in both counties that politicians from one county will overlook the needs of the other to provide pork to their home bailiwick.

In an article in the Lorain Morning Journal about Cafaro's entrance into the race, Lorain County commissioner Ted Kalo touches on this perception while discussing his apparent disinclination to run.

From the LMJ:

Ted Kalo, Lorain County commissioner, expressed interest in the race shortly after Sherrod Brown announced his run for the senate but said yesterday he is ''leaning toward'' not running.

''I haven't made a commitment to run yet,'' said Kalo. ''It's a matter of raising the money. The other people in the race have a lot of money. I'm not sure a Lorain County candidate can compete with that.''

However, Kalo said he hopes a candidate from Lorain County will run.''Lorain County has lost many manufacturers,'' he said. ''We have growth in the eastern suburbs, but many cities are deteriorating. If we had a Lorain County representative in Congress, we could do a better job of bringing the bacon home.'' (Emphasis Added)

This Summit/Lorain rivalry could play a significant role in the primary. Sutton and Sawyer are both Summit County political figures (although Sutton now lives in Geauga County, in LaTourette's district, her time as an officeholder was spent representing areas in Summit). John Wolfe is also from Summit County (and an actual resident of the 13th, which Sawyer and Sutton cannot claim). Cafaro has moved to Sheffield in Lorain County, but we don't think that's what Ted Kalo had in mind, necessarily. Jack Schira lives in Medina County, which has the smallest percentage of the district's voters.

If a candidate can come out of Summit with 40 to 50 percent of the vote without getting run over in Lorain, it's probably ballgame. However, given the presence of multiple strong candidates, it seems highly unlikely. We are curious to see how each campaign uses its regional base and if any candidate can sweep a given county. If Lorain is hell-bent on not having a Summit candidate, and Summit hell-bent on not having a Lorain candidate, this could be a very interesting race. Of course, if the two big counties get carved up, Cuyahoga and Medina just increase in importance, and this becomes even more unpredictable. Sheesh.

The Ohio 13 Blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

PSA: John Wolfe on Meet the Bloggers

2006-01-18T05:58:00.000-08:00

Tomorrow, from 10 to 11 at Talkies Coffee in Cleveland, John Wolfe will be featured on Meet the Bloggers. While not officially involved in Meet the Bloggers, Ohio 13 Blog fully supports their efforts to engage the Ohio blogosphere with the political figures of the area. Should be interesting to check out, to see what Wolfe has to offer.

Well, we guess she's running

2006-01-17T07:40:00.000-08:00

According to today's Lorain Morning Journal, Capri Cafaro will be running. Seeing that everyone and their uncle was working under that assumption, not a surprise. We obviously view anything that will make the race more interesting as a plus; Cafaro is the only candidate that is truly feared by the DC elites backing Sutton. She is capable of beating Sutton for a number of labor endorsements, and outspending Sutton on the race.

From Roll Call, Jan. 9, 2006:

While former state Rep. Betty Sutton (D) has emerged as the early favorite among party insiders in the open-seat contest in Ohio’s 13th district, her ability to win the Democratic primary could be complicated by the entrance of a wealthy shopping center heiress in the race.Capri Cafaro, who lost to an incumbent in a neighboring district in 2004, is expected to reveal soon whether she will run for the Cleveland-area seat that Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is vacating to run for Senate.Former Rep. Tom Sawyer (D), who represented the 14th district from 1986 to 2002, is also running in the May 2 primary.Democratic strategists are touting Sutton’s candidacy largely because they view her as the party’s strongest nominee in a district that favors Democrats. She has already garnered the support of two unions, and backers say that more organized labor support will follow.

Later in the article, it continues the theme that Betty Sutton has never lost an election, something her supporters bring up repeatedly. While true, one has to look at the elections she's won. She had a ridiculously safe D state assembly seat. You could paint a D on a fire hydrant, and if it was on the ballot as a Democrat, it would have won comfortably. So while good rhetoric, it is not exactly the whole story.

It's a good day for the blog and the junkies tho; it looks like we have a lightning rod. As we mentioned previously, Cafaro will be the central figure, if not the favorite, in this campaign. People either love her or hate her, and we've seen some of both already. Her entrance ensures that we'll have plenty of fun stuff to report.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Happy MLK weekend

2006-01-16T08:12:00.000-08:00

Not much new to report. The media is laying low right now in covering the race, and it really is calm in the run up to pulling petitions. Candidates have been making appearances, and it seems that Tom Sawyer has even been seen at a meeting in Summit County. We are unsure what he's up to, really. He is either trying to coast on name ID (the "pretend I'm still an incumbent" strategy), or is still in the exploratory stage.

Despite that, Tom Sawyer cannot be written off or underestimated. He's represented a good part of the district, and certainly has the highest name ID of any candidate. Despite his trade votes, should voters be focused elsewhere, he could very well pull through.

To all, a happy Martin Luther King Day, and take a moment, everyone, to remember his legacy, how far we've come as a nation, and how much further we have to go.

Open Thread for the weekend

2006-01-13T09:25:00.000-08:00

Slow news day today, after the buzzing and happenings of this week. So, we're putting up the weekend open thread.

Obviously, you can discuss whatever, but we're interested in the questions we previously posited:

1. Who are you leaning towards/ supporting/ loving/ working for, and why?
2. What other race interests you the most and why? This can range from Governor to dogcatcher to any race in between.

We'll abstain from question 1, but as for 2, the AG's race piques our interest. Marc Dann seems like a great guy, would make a capable AG and a very interesting candidate. Subodh Chandra, while the underdog, also seems quite acceptable, and would be a quality AG as well. The GOP race has a frontrunner in State Sen. Tim Grendell, who will have to battle the entire "fox guarding the henhouse" thing most likely. Should be a fun race.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

A business note, and a thank you

2006-01-12T19:34:00.000-08:00

First off, to make clear, this is essentially a Mon-Fri. blog... until we have ads and get to charge dailykos rates (please, let us charge dailykos rates), we need our weekends. Obviously around E-day, that will change. We tend to do most of our writing during business hours as well, so if you write us at night, your reply may be slowed somewhat. If we don't reply, it's not that we don't care; frankly, this blog has taken off much more quickly, and unintendedly than we ever expected. If we thought it would get this overwhelming this fast, we would have learned how to do a good blog. Thanks to everyone, from campaign staff, to event attendees to DC people and labor people, and everyone in between for helping us spread info, shine a light, and any other happy cliché one cares to insert.

We will be instituting open threads every Friday, to keep the action flowing. They'll be centered around two questions, each in two parts.

1. Who do you support, and why?
2. What other race in Ohio interests you the most, and why?

Save your answers for tomorrow's open thread though... otherwise, the weekend could get boring.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

EMILY's List and a new candidate

2006-01-12T13:21:00.000-08:00

Emily's List made its endorsement in this race today, endorsing Betty Sutton. It is not a surprise, as winds out of DC have been swirling in that direction for a while. Most observers assumed it would happen eventually. We here at OH-13 figured it would happen a little later, when people other than junkies were paying attention. Well, congrats Team Sutton. This should guarantee a fun-filled competitive primary, as this means Sutton will have some funds to play with. If she becomes the "DC" candidate, it gives her strength, but leaves her vulnerable to attack for that same DC support. Politics is full of such ironies.

The reactions of other campaigns should be interesting. Sawyer, for obvious genetic reasons, was not going to get it, but had to hope that perhaps they would stay out of it. With Union support not forthcoming, Sawyer had to hope for some support from women's groups and pro-choice organizations, as his voting record on those issues was very much in step with their views. Cafaro, while probably disappointed, is not seriously affected by this. The ability to self-fund can do that. It does ruin any hope she may have harbored of running over the field, although in a race like this, it seemed highly unlikely anyways, for any candidate. Had the List stayed out, it would have worked greatly to Cafaro's advantage, so this development pretty much ensures a competitive race here.

In other news, despite word from EMILY's List we have hears of another new person putting forward his name into the race... Jack Schira, from Medina County. Will have more on him as events develop, although a major part of his message is that he is the only one from inside the district running.

None of us have ever attended a 5-way primary debate... It would certainly be an event worth watching.

The Ohio 13 blog editors
we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

New News and Old News on The R side

2006-01-12T09:09:00.000-08:00

It appears now that, despite his protestations that he didn't want to be cannon fodder, Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin is going to jump into the race. The GOP honchos in DC must be willing to commit a lot of money to get him to jump... and even with that money, he remains an underdog to any major contender. It's a strong lean D district, and the Dem survivor, whomever it may be, will have the profile and money to make a GOP pickup unlikely. Not to mention the fact that, well, you know, the Ohio GOP has been perhaps as corrupt and unpopular as any party at any time in Ohio history. Besides that, maybe it could work.

Considering the checkered histories (voting, personal or otherwise) of the major Dem contenders and the generally uphill nature of the race, we'd presume the GOP would try to find the cleanest, most straight-arrow candidate they could. The problem is (other than as soon as one takes a drive through downtown Lorain, the mayor would seem more likely to be recalled than promoted) that Craig Foltin's past is just as "interesting" as the Dem field.

Like most public figures, Foltin has left a legacy. Unlike most figures, his includes accusations of having a phone conversation with a police dispatcher that was sexually themed. We understand that it can seem like an emergency when it's been a while since the last, well, you know, but we are almost certain that is not what the police force fits under that category. Maybe he dialed 1-800 instead of 1-900 by mistake.

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Aug. 6, 2003:

The lurid details of a taped conversation that appears to be between Mayor Craig Foltin and a police dispatcher became public yesterday.
Two weeks ago, an anonymous person sent the six-minute tape to City Council President Kenneth Shawver. The tape includes several instances of sexual bantering.
The phone rings and the mayor says, "Hey.""You have a great . . .," a woman says."Who is this?" the mayor jokes.
The two laugh as they discuss details from a recent night.Foltin also speaks about attending a retirement party, and a meeting with state, county and city officials on improvements to Colorado Avenue and going to court to acquire property from residents.

And a few paragraphs later:

After listening to the tape with a reporter, Foltin said the conversation was from 11/2 years ago, though he never conceded that it was his voice.
Listening to a portion of the tape, Foltin said, "I don't remember any of those conversations." After the entire tape was played, he said: "I think it's tough to tell. I can't tell if it's me. What do you think?"
Foltin would not say whether he had dated a police dispatcher. "Right now, I am settled down and engaged to a lovely girl," he said, declining to identify her. His fiancee does not work for the city, he said.

We at OH-13 are unsure of what the bigger laugh is: is it that he was enjoying a sexual phone conversation with an on-duty police dispatcher, he was too stupid to realize that the POLICE TAPE ALL THE CALLS, or that when presented with the calls, he knew when they were made, but was unsure if he was the one on them? Was he just listening in to calls between a police dispatcher and someone who sounded remarkably like him? Enquiring minds and political junkies want to know, even if Mayor Foltin isn't sure about the whole deal.

If Karl Rove has taught us anything, it is the value of plausible deniability. Unfortunately, Foltin must have missed that day in "Hiding the Bodies 101." We at Ohio 13 think that Foltin's campaign staff better keep a close eye on his phone bills, just to be on the safe side.

Other political Happenings, and a Tom Sawyer Sighting UPDATE OR MAYBE NOT

2006-01-12T06:34:00.000-08:00

Well, these even years will bring about a number of races throughout OH-13, and the state. We wanted to take the opportunity to state, for the record, that this blog will attempt to cover some of the statewide, and General Assembly races impacting OH 13. Just not right this minute. As it impacts our little bailiwick, it will find its way one the site.

A couple of days ago, we noted that John Wolfe was appearing with the North Medina Dems. He apparently wasn't alone. Tom Sawyer made an appearance there as well, so he is no longer flying entirely under the radar. Awaiting word on how well he was received. UPDATE: Our Apologies. We may have rushed to print on this one. According to other Sources, Tom Sawyer did not attend.

So much is happening under the radar, but so little is able to go to press as of yet. We'll hopefully have some more info later today, as some leads continue to get followed up on.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

A few upcoming events, and some random scuttlebutt

2006-01-10T10:03:00.000-08:00

Slowly but surely. word on campaign events is leeching out, like so much lead based paint.
John Wolfe will be at Donato's Pizza in Brunswick, State Route 303, for a meeting of the North Medina Democrats, at 6:30 PM.

Betty Sutton will be the featured speaker at the Medina County Democratic Women's Dinner and Recognition Awards on Jan. 28. See the Medina County Democrats Website for more details.

As we hear more, you'll hear more.

Speaking of which, it is looking like a more solid assumption that Tom Sawyer won't be the candidate. The unions are, at absolute best, cold towards him, and the reality is somewhere closer to openly hostile. Looking over his FEC reports from his last two runs, he clearly was not a prolific fundraiser from individuals, garnering most of his money from PACs, party orgs, other campaign committees, etc. When a incumbent, this is a workable strategy. However, as a challenger in a contested primary, individual donors are very important, and without them or the ability to self-fund, any edge in name ID can be offset by air time. He's filed nothing new yet with the FEC, so probably won't know for sure about Tom until the petitions are pulled (or not).

Capri Cafaro has been relatively quiet publicly, athough a number of labor sources tell us she's making the rounds to them. Apparently, she's being relatively well-received. We think it's only a matter of time until she jumps in... as soon as she does, for better of for worse, she will probably become the central attraction. She's young, reasonably attractive, intelligent, with a controversial background and a cool sounding name. She's packaged for media attention, probably quite a bit of it negative, if her previous campaign was any idea. Cafaro will be, if not the candidate to beat, the candidate to run against. And that can be a dangerous place (ask Howard Dean about Iowa sometime), or a very beneficial one, depending on how well the candidate's campaign plays the role.

John Wolfe wins the award for the first campaign to contact us. We do appreciate it, and we highly recommend that every campaign include us on press release lists, press advisory lists , distribution lists for public schedules, conference calls, as well as strategy sessions, payrolls and lists of people who get jobs after elected. Well, at least the first four... and the last one would be nice too. Again, the focus has been on the bigger name candidates thus far, but Wolfe is out and about working the traditional campaign circuit, and should he surprise in fundraising or organization, bigger upsets have happened. In a multi-way primary, anything can happen.

The Ohio 13 blog editors
We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

A few notekeeping items- about us

2006-01-09T18:05:00.000-08:00

So as not to take over the comments section of Pho's Akron pages, (highly recommended, BTW), we wanted to answer a few concerns and questions stated or implied by the editor of the Ohio 2 blog, the site in which is in many ways the godfather of ours.

In a comment, he questioned whether true impartiality was possible. We wholeheartedly concur; it probably isn't. It's a noble a valid goal, but since we are human, and naturally biased, and frankly, want to have some fun and maybe stir the pot a bit too, perfect fair and balanced coverage will have to be left to Faux News (see, that's one of our biases right there).

So, to start, we are three Dem leaning individuals of varying involvement in politics. Two live in district, one does not. One voted for Betty Sutton twice for the State House, another voted for Tom Sawyer once for U.S. House. None of us were in the right district to vote for Capri Cafaro, and as far as we know, the rest of the cast of characters have yet to appear on a ballot anywhere (at least anywhere we've been).

Thus far, all the pieces have been consultative in nature; as the election proceeds, it may become necessary for us to post individually, but we rather like the team aspect of the blog. As for our anonymity, well, we have found that sources are more likely to speak with us if they have the extra layer of protection that our anonymity provides; and at least one of our intrepid editorial board has a morbid fear of groupies. Nothing sinister in our motive; we want to tell the story of this race as completely and interestingly as possible.

As of now, none of our board have a favorite candidate; like most everyone else, we don't know enough about them, and what we do know just proves the political axiom that it is easier to find negative info than positive. Should the viewpoint of any or all of us change, we will let everyone know, if for no other reason than to land that big consulting contract at the end of the blogger rainbow (just kidding, that would involve technical knowledge and computer skills).

And as always, if you have comments, concerns, leads, info, rumors, wild speculation, insults, harrassment, or even just a shout out, leave a comment or an email. We love to hear from our readers.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

The calm before the storm

2006-01-09T10:54:00.000-08:00

Seems eerily quiet in this race right now. There was a flurry of activity throughout December, with names bandied about, people stepping forward and stepping back, and rumors flying through the media and the political grapevine at surprising speed. Then came the holidays, and now, since the new year has commenced, precious little is heard. From Lorain to Akron, from Elyria to North Royalton and countless suburbs betwixt and between, nary a word emerges; only occasional whispers carried by the breeze, signifying who knows what.

Fortunately for the political junkies, and especially for us, as this blog would be relatively pointless otherwise, this is the type of calm that emerges only before a storm of activity. Behind the scenes, so much is happening quietly. While we do like to traffic in rumors and innuendo here, we do want to make sure what we put out is reliably sourced, so much of what is coming our way right now cannot be published yet. In the near future, a flurry of activity will begin, and I would not expect it to slow down until the May primary.

Things we've heard:

1. This race will start early. Expect at least one, and quite possibly more than one campaign to get on the air in February. By Mid-March, all serious campaigns will be up for the duration, should their money hold up. Ohio 13 will attempt to track media buys for this race; it is work-intensive, but also a good guage of where campaigns are.

2. This race will get ugly. We are researching, and others are informing us of a great deal of dirt about the candidates involved. If the names in play now are the ones in play when petitions are filed, there should be no shortage of gotcha stories in the press. (NOTE: Ohio 13 will gladly accept leads from all sources; just be prepared to back up your claims, or we will call you on them.)

3. February will determine a great deal about this race. A good number of power brokers and other players have made their decisions on whom they will support in this race, but are keeping it quiet. Expect to hear in February who they've decided on. Especially of interest will be Sherrod Brown's role in this. He is rumored to have encouraged Betty Sutton to enter the race, but should her campaign fail to gain momentum, or continue to make mistakes like (allegedly) claiming endorsements and support they did not hold, the degree and volume of Brown's support will be interesting to observe. In the midst of a competitive Senate primary, will Brown be willing to risk political capital on this race? Will he make a public endorsement? He stands to benefit very little by getting involved, and could potentially weaken himself if his horse doesn't come out ahead. At Ohio 13, our best guess (NOTE: pure speculation) is that he will remain neutral, and then work with whatever Dem survives the primary. Not a bold prediction, we know, but a prediction nonetheless.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Welcome MYDDers and Upcoming Events

2006-01-06T12:46:00.000-08:00

Welcome MYDDers.

Look forward to hearing your input.

Upcoming Events:

Jan 23: Petitions can be pulled. Ohio13 Blog will monitor who pulls petitions for this race.
Feb. 16: Petitions due. We'll have our field, and start the real prognostication.

And obviously, we'll have plenty of other content. Keep on coming back, bookmark us, tell your friends, link to us, etc.

The Ohio 13 Blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

The Early Buzz

2006-01-06T08:31:00.000-08:00

Well, there is not a whole lot of publicity on this race so far, which is slightly surprising, particularly on the D side. However, after contacting our intrepid sources throughout the district, a few things are becoming clear.

1. Washington had a FAR different impression of the race than the powerbrokers in district.

After word started to circulate that former Rep. Tom Sawyer may be interested in the 13th district race, the DC intellegensia and Dem "establishment" spent December attempting to anoint a (non-Sawyer) frontrunner in this race. Sawyer, whose vote for NAFTA ultimately cost him a seat in Congress when redistricted into the 17th in the 2002 election, is viewed by many in DC as damaged goods, especially in a district like the 13th, where labor plays such a vital role in Dem politics.

They attempted to ordain former state Rep. Betty Sutton as the leading candidate. DCCC released statements pumping her up, word came from EMILY's List that they were keeping an eye on her and other buzz began to build. Not a bad way to start.

The only problem is, according to our sources, Sutton and some of her DC backers have badly overplayed their hand. Apparently, Ms. Sutton and some others have claimed labor endorsements for her and support that Ms. Sutton did not possess. When interested individuals and organizations called the actual union local leaders to ask about her, the unions were dumbfounded. Many of the leaders had never spoken to Betty Sutton, and no decision had been made on the endorsements. Needless to say, this has raised hackles. We have been told that this series of events directly led to the UAW's decision to attempt to draft Capri Cafaro into the race.
Sutton is not without labor support; at least one Firefighters' local has come out in support of her, and some other groups, such as the teachers' and nurses', are widely expected to follow. However, many of the biggest unions have been upset by her presumption of support, and are looking elsewhere.

Tom Sawyer, besides the lack of Union support, does not appear to be having much success in finding any other support. Should he run, he would be relying on name ID alone to push him to the finish line, not a strong strategy when facing one or more candidates who may spend a lot of money. As of writing, he has not filed a declaration of candidacy, which means he hasn't spent much money so far. Especially with Sutton's presumed support from teachers, as Pho's Akron Pages notes, Sawyer's one potentially friendly labor organization may be otherwise engaged. There is a certain sadness to the entire Sawyer episode; he will be forever defined and given a Scarlet Free Trade Letter for a few votes. But alas, when you underestimate the political power of unions in Northeast Ohio, good rarely comes out of it.

Capri Cafaro, coming off of the UAW draft/endorsement , is now widely expected to run. although the word from people close to her continues to be that a decision has not been made. While UAW support for Cafaro would not have been surprising had she been a declared candidate, the fact that it came so early, and after the Betty Sutton episode detailed above, speaks volumes. Should she enter the race, expect things to get very expensive very early, another very bad sign for Sawyer, and quite probably Sutton too. While carpet-bagger accusations are sure to fly at Cafaro (she was the candidate in Ohio 14 last cycle), she is very lucky in that neither Sawyer nor Sutton live in the 13th district, dampening the potential for those attacks.

John Wolfe is the only Dem candidate with a declaration of candidacy filed and a campaign website. Otherwise, he's gaining no real traction, nor should he be expected to. The big guns will be arriving shortly, and a 79 year old attorney with zero-name ID and little resources cannot be expected to do much. Sad, he seems like a good guy from his website, and at least he has a website (note to other candidates: GET A WEBSITE!). But eventually, the reality of politics catches up to us all.

2. The GOP is writing the seat off.

Probably not a bad move for them, resourcewise; it is a Dem majority district in a state where the GOP is not exactly thought of fondly. The GOP governor's approval ratings are somewhere around Bin Laden's. The most prominent U.S. Rep from Ohio is "representative #1" in the Abramoff scandal. Not where I'd make my stand, to be blunt.

The name that has been bandied about is Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin. However, he has been quoted in the ABJ as saying he doesn't want to be "cannon fodder." And right now, that is all any Republican short of Lincoln would be in this race.

Joe Ortega has filed for the race, and as of his last available filing, raised almost $50,000, all but $100 of which coming from loans and contributions by... Joe Ortega. He also has a campaign website and as much chance of winning in the General as Tom Tancredo has of winning the 2008 GOP presidential nomination.

If the GOP decided to seriously contest the 13th, they would be looking at spending millions to hold the Democrat candidate to below 60% of the vote. The only motivation would be to weaken whoever the Dem nominee is so that come 2012 redistricting, that member would likely be on the chopping block.

3. Anything could happen (almost).

Pretty self-explanatory. We will not hazard any predictions yet, only to say expect this race to be fierce on the D side, probably expensive, and likely decided by union support. Lots of things need to shake out in order to make even a semi-educated guess. Should be fun though.

4. Let us know what's up.

While we have our sources, we are always looking for information, contacts, etc. So, campaigns, operatives, junkies, rumormongers, press, interested parties, uninterested parties, anyone, let us know what you think, what we are missing. Campaigns, keep us in the loop... we want to report as much as we can on this race as fairly as possible, and your cooperation will assist that.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

The lay of the land, D and R

2006-01-05T08:57:00.000-08:00

A brief summary of Ohio 13, the campaign, and all that fun stuff...
(Statistics from Almanac of American Politics 2006, and other public sources.)

Map of the 13th District

527 sq. mi in area, strecting from the Lake Erie lakeshore in Lorain County around Cleveland and down into parts of Akron and points south, including parts of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Summit and Medina Counties

92.7% urban, 18.5% non-white

Kerry won the district 56 to 44 in 2004, Gore won 53 to 44 in 2000

Current incumbent is Sherrod Brown. Since these district lines have been in effect, he has not had a competitive race.

13th is an industrial area, with strong and active participation in politics by labor unions.

Our contestants in this race (note: includes presumptions, and potentially gossip and wild speculation):

D: Capri Cafaro (2004 candidate in OH 14)
Tom Sawyer (Ex-congressman)
Betty Sutton (Former State Senator)
John Wolfe (Attorney)

R: Joe Ortega (Businessman)

Other names, such as Lorain County Commissioner Ted Kalo (D), Former State Rep. Walter Jones (D), and Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) have circulated in the rumor mill; however, our sources have given us good reason to believe these three will sit out the race.

Just a brief intro to the race. Let us know if you see any information that we are missing.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

As they arrive...

2006-01-04T15:24:00.000-08:00

I have started lining the official candidate websites that are available. While the "big names" like Tom Sawyer, Betty Sutton, Capri Cafaro, and whatever "name" Republican(s) eventually decide to take the plunge are procrastinating with getting online, Joe Ortega (R) and John Wolfe (D) have their online sites up and running. As others get online, we'll link those too.

I admire the people who run for office who are, let me say, heavily NOT favored. There's a certain charm to many of them. So, even as this becomes a race dominated by one or two "name" candidates, we'll keep an eye out for the little guys and see what they are up to.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

We can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com

Welcome

2006-01-04T14:29:00.000-08:00

Welcome all. In the coming days and weeks, this site will be dedicated to the comings and goings of the open seat Congressional Race in the 13th District of Ohio. We'll first have to give thanks to Sherrod Brown, whose decision to run for the U.S. Senate made this race and blog possible. Having done that, I ask for your patience and hope to soon be providing good, fair and (hopefully) unbiased content on this race as soon as possible. All the best to everyone, and may the best man or woman win.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com .