It is what it says it is.

Thursday, March 09, 2006

The silence is deafening

So far, not a single campaign has released its middle school transcripts. It is clear that our field has something to hide. As this silence continues, it becomes clear that Tom Sawyer's childhood may not have been quite as idyllic as it was portrayed in that book... Sure, he'll blame Huck Finn for the real bad behavior, but we know better.

Otherwise, it's been vewwy vewwy quiet... well, at least in district. Washington is all in a tizzy, as it apparently becomes more and more convinced that Cafaro is for real and might just win. Ellen Malcolm (the grande dame of EMILY's List) sent out a fundraising letter for Betty Sutton today, which is notable in that it mentions Cafaro's name nearly as many times as it mention's Betty Sutton's. No other challenger gets such special treatment. No other challenger gets mentioned by name.

To translate into conventional political wisdom for everyone: Ellen Malcolm, by naming Cafaro and no other candidate (besides Sutton, of course), has essentially come to the determination that this is a two horse race, and that right now, Cafaro is the favorite. You don't mention your
opponent unless your opponent is winning, as a rule... that's where you get candidates saying "my opponent" rather than the opponent's name a large amount of the time. She didn't mention Tom Sawyer (who actually, would probably win if election day were tomorrow... he's trying to get that passed through the Ohio legislature, we bet), nor any of our other characters... for the exact reason that they are not threats to Sutton.

We guess what is most puzzling about the attacks this week is not that they're coming. Every D candidate worth their salt had to be gunning for SMH, because they know her money puts her in a unique position. However, this week, as noted in the Hill, the GOP is already attacking Cafaro. Seems to us that if the GOP wanted to run against SMH in the general, they'd spend some time attacking Sawyer or Sutton. Maybe the GOoPer intellegensia know something we don't... Either they're pretty sure Cafaro's gonna win, or they would prefer to face another candidate. Neither conclusion fits in perfectly with what we've thought thus far, so maybe there are still more new tricks in this race.

In Other news... We are almost tournament ready. This weekend, we will announce the Ohio Blogger Bracket details. All bloggers are welcome (heck, we guess everyone is, since we're not going to be able to effectively determine who meets whatever eligibility criteria.) To the winner, we will give the opportunity to make a post on the Ohio13-related topic of their choosing. As long as it's not obscene or libelous, or otherwise puts us in danger of serving time or getting sued, write whatever you want. I can't wait to see what happens....

OH 13

10 Comments:

Blogger Jill said...

What is the line on the next logical question: who - between Cafaro and Sutton - is more likely to beat the GOP candidate (whomever that turns out to be)?

1:55 PM

 
Blogger Ohio 13 said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

2:49 PM

 
Blogger Ohio 13 said...

That's the point we were trying to elicit, Jill... We have been operating under the assumption that the answer to that question was Betty Sutton, but the GOP is behaving as if the answer was Cafaro. If they were more afraid of Sutton, and wanted to face Cafaro, would they be attacking Cafaro, which would only make a Sutton win more likely? That's what has me confused, because they have polling data and I don't.

2:50 PM

 
Blogger Jill said...

Hmm, very curious. Can you give a reminder as to how the GOP race stacks up?

6:28 PM

 
Blogger Ohio 13 said...

Well, as of now... the GOP race appears to be Foltin's to lose... and to use the old political cliché, he'd need to be caught with a dead girl or a live boy to lose it. Foltin has significant advantages in every area of the campaign; money, name ID, institutional support, base, ground support.

Actually, every D should root for Foltin, in my humble opinion... he has enough negatives to hammer at, and he's not a very strong or inspiring presence face-to-face. Frankly, if a candidate like Burtzlaff had money and Name ID, he'd be a threat. But this is the real world, and Foltin has to be installed at about a 9 to 1 favorite to win.

6:02 AM

 
Blogger Ohio 13 said...

To clarify, the significant advantages for Foltin are over the GOP field. All of the legit D contenders are strong favorites over him.

6:04 AM

 
Blogger Frank said...

I say District 13 is Democratic enough that whoever is in the general has to be the favorite over any republican.

To me, someone wants Cafaro out really badly. And I don't believe it is because she loses in November.

7:31 AM

 
Blogger OhioExile said...

I think you guys should really go into why Foltin is not a potential strong candidate assuming he has the right opponent and money. He's been able to win as a Republican in the city of Lorain, as well as other offices, which isn't anything to sneer at. And while he isn't engaging face to face, it doesn't really appear that most of the other candidates are darlings in that sphere either. It would definately be a major upset for him to pull off a win, but depending on the Democratic Nominee, he could have some advantages. Not to mention, he does have the power of actually being a position at the moment, rather than basically all of his opponents. Anyways, let me know what you guys think.

7:40 AM

 
Blogger Ohio 13 said...

Well, if I were working on a Democratic Campaign against Foltin, I would have a camera crew filming some of Lorain's more "interesting" areas, and let Foltin take credit for that. Plus, he has the sex tape negative, the cronyism negatives, and a bunch more. We will be covering this issue more fully, as we approach the general.

Is Foltin stronger than any other imaginable GOP candidate in the 13th? Probably. But that's like being the thinnest kid at Fat Camp. You're still fat. Being stronger than Ortega, Butzlaff, and the rest of the 13th CD GOP does not make you strong, just a little less weak.

8:08 AM

 
Blogger PoliticalHistorian said...

Foltin won only because the former mayor did everyting he could do to piss people off. No one should confuse the Foltin victories as a positive, they were "we hate the other guy" votes. When will we ever look back into the papers and remember whats been going on the past 8 years? We stink as consumers of information, its as if we have news alzhiemers.

6:39 PM

 

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