It is what it says it is.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

DC Conventional Wisdom via Charlie Cook

As none of us are particularly wealthy, able to spend ready cash on things like The Cook Report. Fortunately, an excerpt of a recent breakdown of the 13th race from the Report fell into our greedy little hands.

For those who don't know, The Cook Political Report is the work of Charlie Cook, and it describes itself as " an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. In 2004, we moved to an online-based publication." It is widely read and respected by professionals in the political field, and more importantly, it is a good guage of what the DC "Conventional Wisdom" has to say about the race.

It discusses four candidates in particular, Cafaro, Sawyer, Kucinich and Sutton, and gives a brief mention to Grace as well.

Briefly, Pros and Cons from the report on each candidate:

PRO- Money
CON- Traficant (shocker there, huh?)

PRO- Name ID
CON- Weak fundraiser

PRO- Same name as brother
CON- Can he tap into brother's donor base or the liberal anti-war blogging community (judging by reaction so far, probably not)

PRO- Political Base
CON- Money

PRO- Establishment fave, some labor support
CON- Expected labor support split by Cafaro, money, long time since last on the ballot.

Yeah, real groundbreaking stuff here, nothing we couldn't have drawn together, I know. But more interesting is the general election analysis (which assumes Foltin wins the GOP nod).

"And while national Republicans express support for Foltin, it remains to be seen if they will ultimately invest money here. After all, the first priority of the Republican Congressional Committee is to protect their vulnerable incumbents and open seats. This is not a cheap district in which to play offense."

Conventional Wisdom is saying that Foltin may get the "placeholder" treatment from DC. He may be "cannon fodder." It also mentions concerns about his ability to raise money, which will be amplified if he does not get that GOP national support.

Just wanted to share...



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