It is what it says it is.

Monday, January 09, 2006

The calm before the storm

Seems eerily quiet in this race right now. There was a flurry of activity throughout December, with names bandied about, people stepping forward and stepping back, and rumors flying through the media and the political grapevine at surprising speed. Then came the holidays, and now, since the new year has commenced, precious little is heard. From Lorain to Akron, from Elyria to North Royalton and countless suburbs betwixt and between, nary a word emerges; only occasional whispers carried by the breeze, signifying who knows what.

Fortunately for the political junkies, and especially for us, as this blog would be relatively pointless otherwise, this is the type of calm that emerges only before a storm of activity. Behind the scenes, so much is happening quietly. While we do like to traffic in rumors and innuendo here, we do want to make sure what we put out is reliably sourced, so much of what is coming our way right now cannot be published yet. In the near future, a flurry of activity will begin, and I would not expect it to slow down until the May primary.

Things we've heard:

1. This race will start early. Expect at least one, and quite possibly more than one campaign to get on the air in February. By Mid-March, all serious campaigns will be up for the duration, should their money hold up. Ohio 13 will attempt to track media buys for this race; it is work-intensive, but also a good guage of where campaigns are.

2. This race will get ugly. We are researching, and others are informing us of a great deal of dirt about the candidates involved. If the names in play now are the ones in play when petitions are filed, there should be no shortage of gotcha stories in the press. (NOTE: Ohio 13 will gladly accept leads from all sources; just be prepared to back up your claims, or we will call you on them.)

3. February will determine a great deal about this race. A good number of power brokers and other players have made their decisions on whom they will support in this race, but are keeping it quiet. Expect to hear in February who they've decided on. Especially of interest will be Sherrod Brown's role in this. He is rumored to have encouraged Betty Sutton to enter the race, but should her campaign fail to gain momentum, or continue to make mistakes like (allegedly) claiming endorsements and support they did not hold, the degree and volume of Brown's support will be interesting to observe. In the midst of a competitive Senate primary, will Brown be willing to risk political capital on this race? Will he make a public endorsement? He stands to benefit very little by getting involved, and could potentially weaken himself if his horse doesn't come out ahead. At Ohio 13, our best guess (NOTE: pure speculation) is that he will remain neutral, and then work with whatever Dem survives the primary. Not a bold prediction, we know, but a prediction nonetheless.

The Ohio 13 blog editors

we can be reached at ohio13 at gmail dot com


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